Models
KABRA EXTRUSION TECHNIK LKABRAEXTRUIndustrial Manufacturing
₹-36per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(36)implied FY26 P/E (256.8)× · EV/EBITDA 1.3×
Against CMP ₹725.00−105.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31-305%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(43)₹(33)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹180₹717
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 54 |
| PV of terminal value | (40) |
| Enterprise value | 13 |
| less net debt | (139) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (126) |
| ÷ 3.50 crore shares | ₹(36) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (36) | (37) | (39) | (40) | (43) |
| 10.50% | (35) | (36) | (37) | (39) | (40) |
| 11.00% | (34) | (35) | (36) | (37) | (38) |
| 11.50% | (33) | (34) | (35) | (36) | (37) |
| 12.00% | (33) | (33) | (34) | (35) | (36) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹725.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (39) · (36) · (33) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | +0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 670 | 608 | 477 | 451 | 428 | 407 | 387 | 367 | 349 |
| growth % | 65.1 | (9.3) | (21.5) | (5.4) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 74 | 61 | 58 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| margin % | 11.1 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| less depreciation | (14) | (16) | (21) | (30) | (29) | (27) | (26) | (25) | (23) |
| EBIT | 60 | 45 | 37 | (20) | (19) | (18) | (17) | (16) | (15) |
| less tax on EBIT | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |||
| NOPAT | (15) | (14) | (13) | (13) | (12) | (11) | |||
| add depreciation | 14 | 16 | 21 | 30 | 29 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 23 |
| less capex | (28) | (50) | (62) | 0 | 0 | (8) | (16) | (22) | (28) |
| less working-capital build | — | 15 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (34) | (18) | (20) | — | 30 | 20 | 11 | 3 | (4) |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 28 | 17 | 9 | 2 | (2) |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 141, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | (20) | (19) | (18) | (17) | (16) | (15) |
| Interest at 8.5% on debt | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | |
| Profit before tax | (31) | (30) | (29) | (28) | (27) | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | (23) | (22) | (22) | (21) | (20) |
| Dividends | (9) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | 23 | 34 | 36 | 30 | 17 |
| Working capital | 301 | 286 | 272 | 258 | 245 | 233 |
| Net block and other assets | 464 | 435 | 416 | 406 | 403 | 408 |
| Debt | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 |
| Equity | 441 | 418 | 396 | 374 | 353 | 333 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 21 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 15 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (8) | (16) | (22) | (28) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 21 | 11 | 2 | (6) | (13) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 21 | 11 | 2 | (6) | (13) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 2.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(36) | (105.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.