Models
KAJARIA CERAMICS LTDKAJARIACERConsumer Durables
₹435per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹435implied FY26 P/E 12.7× · EV/EBITDA 8.5×
Against CMP ₹1,228.80−64.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹340₹623
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹870₹1,294
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,925 |
| PV of terminal value | 5,071 |
| Enterprise value | 6,996 |
| less net debt | (74) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,922 |
| ÷ 15.93 crore shares | ₹435 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 449 | 480 | 518 | 565 | 623 |
| 10.50% | 415 | 442 | 473 | 510 | 556 |
| 11.00% | 386 | 409 | 435 | 465 | 502 |
| 11.50% | 362 | 380 | 402 | 428 | 458 |
| 12.00% | 340 | 356 | 375 | 396 | 421 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,228.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 358 · 431 · 521 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.75 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.10 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,382 | 4,578 | 4,635 | 4,830 | 5,024 | 5,225 | 5,433 | 5,651 | 5,877 |
| growth % | 18.3 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| EBITDA | 584 | 700 | 626 | 822 | 854 | 888 | 924 | 961 | 999 |
| margin % | 13.3 | 15.3 | 13.5 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 |
| less depreciation | (133) | (148) | (165) | (169) | (176) | (183) | (190) | (198) | (206) |
| EBIT | 451 | 552 | 461 | 653 | 678 | 705 | 734 | 763 | 793 |
| less tax on EBIT | (184) | (191) | (199) | (207) | (215) | (224) | |||
| NOPAT | 469 | 487 | 506 | 527 | 548 | 570 | |||
| add depreciation | 133 | 148 | 165 | 169 | 176 | 183 | 190 | 198 | 206 |
| less capex | (232) | (300) | (221) | (127) | (131) | (157) | (185) | (215) | (247) |
| less working-capital build | — | (34) | (36) | (37) | (39) | (40) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 64 | 301 | 280 | — | 498 | 497 | 495 | 492 | 488 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 472 | 425 | 381 | 342 | 305 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 130, dividends at 39.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 653 | 678 | 705 | 734 | 763 | 793 |
| Interest at 14.8% on debt | (19) | (19) | (19) | (19) | (19) | |
| Profit before tax | 659 | 686 | 714 | 744 | 774 | |
| Profit after tax | 485 | 473 | 493 | 513 | 534 | 556 |
| Dividends | (191) | (186) | (194) | (202) | (210) | (219) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 56 | 353 | 642 | 921 | 1,189 | 1,445 |
| Working capital | 860 | 895 | 930 | 968 | 1,006 | 1,046 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,113 | 3,068 | 3,042 | 3,036 | 3,053 | 3,094 |
| Debt | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 |
| Equity | 3,130 | 3,417 | 3,716 | 4,026 | 4,350 | 4,687 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 615 | 640 | 666 | 693 | 721 | |
| Investing (capex) | (131) | (157) | (185) | (215) | (247) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (186) | (194) | (202) | (210) | (219) | |
| Net change in cash | 298 | 289 | 279 | 268 | 255 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 484 | 483 | 481 | 478 | 474 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 4% | 17% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹435 | (64.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.