Models
KALYANI COMMERCIALS LTDKALYANIAgricultural Commercial & Construction Vehicles
₹270per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹270implied FY22 P/E 11.8× · EV/EBITDA 7.3×
Against CMP ₹144.99+86.5%close of 2026-08-27
Growth the CMP implies(12.7)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2773%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹212₹387
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY23–FY27 free cash flow | 7 |
| PV of terminal value | 20 |
| Enterprise value | 27 |
| less net debt | 0 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 27 |
| ÷ 0.10 crore shares | ₹270 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 279 | 299 | 322 | 351 | 387 |
| 10.50% | 258 | 275 | 294 | 317 | 345 |
| 11.00% | 241 | 254 | 270 | 289 | 312 |
| 11.50% | 225 | 237 | 250 | 266 | 285 |
| 12.00% | 212 | 222 | 233 | 247 | 262 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹144.99; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 228 · 269 · 318 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.68 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 641 | 227 | 230 | 232 | 234 | 237 | 239 | 241 |
| growth % | — | (64.5) | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| EBITDA | 17 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| margin % | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (2) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| EBIT | 13 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | ||
| NOPAT | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||
| add depreciation | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| less capex | — | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (0) | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Profit after tax | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Investing (capex) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY22 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1% | 1.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹270 | 86.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.