Models
KALYANI STEELS LIMITEDKSLIndustrial Products
₹524per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹524implied FY26 P/E 8.7× · EV/EBITDA 7.6×
Against CMP ₹976.00−46.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹396₹780
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹574₹993
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 808 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,883 |
| Enterprise value | 2,691 |
| less net debt | (398) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,293 |
| ÷ 4.37 crore shares | ₹524 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 544 | 587 | 638 | 701 | 780 |
| 10.50% | 498 | 534 | 576 | 627 | 689 |
| 11.00% | 459 | 489 | 524 | 566 | 616 |
| 11.50% | 426 | 451 | 481 | 515 | 556 |
| 12.00% | 396 | 418 | 443 | 472 | 506 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹976.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 436 · 526 · 633 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.71 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,706 | 1,959 | 1,982 | 1,846 | 1,753 | 1,666 | 1,582 | 1,503 | 1,428 |
| growth % | 43.6 | 14.9 | 1.1 | (6.9) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 338 | 373 | 373 | 353 | 335 | 318 | 302 | 287 | 273 |
| margin % | 19.8 | 19.0 | 18.8 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 |
| less depreciation | (46) | (61) | (63) | (57) | (54) | (52) | (49) | (47) | (44) |
| EBIT | 293 | 312 | 310 | 296 | 281 | 267 | 253 | 241 | 228 |
| less tax on EBIT | (77) | (73) | (69) | (66) | (62) | (59) | |||
| NOPAT | 220 | 208 | 197 | 188 | 178 | 169 | |||
| add depreciation | 46 | 61 | 63 | 57 | 54 | 52 | 49 | 47 | 44 |
| less capex | (175) | (560) | (25) | (61) | (58) | (57) | (56) | (54) | (53) |
| less working-capital build | — | 26 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 187 | (258) | 357 | — | 230 | 217 | 204 | 192 | 181 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 218 | 185 | 157 | 134 | 113 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 475, dividends at 16.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 296 | 281 | 267 | 253 | 241 | 228 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (38) | (38) | (38) | (38) | (38) | |
| Profit before tax | 243 | 229 | 215 | 203 | 190 | |
| Profit after tax | 258 | 180 | 169 | 159 | 150 | 141 |
| Dividends | (44) | (30) | (29) | (27) | (25) | (24) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 77 | 248 | 408 | 557 | 696 | 826 |
| Working capital | 513 | 487 | 463 | 440 | 418 | 397 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,406 | 2,410 | 2,415 | 2,421 | 2,429 | 2,438 |
| Debt | 475 | 475 | 475 | 475 | 475 | 475 |
| Equity | 2,105 | 2,254 | 2,395 | 2,527 | 2,652 | 2,769 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 260 | 245 | 232 | 219 | 206 | |
| Investing (capex) | (58) | (57) | (56) | (54) | (53) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (30) | (29) | (27) | (25) | (24) | |
| Net change in cash | 171 | 160 | 149 | 139 | 129 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 202 | 189 | 176 | 164 | 153 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 19.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹524 | (46.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.