Models
KANPUR PLASTIPACK LIMITEDKANPRPLAIndustrial Products
₹133per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹133implied FY26 P/E 7.1× · EV/EBITDA 6.6×
Against CMP ₹265.00−50.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹96₹206
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹151₹283
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 127 |
| PV of terminal value | 304 |
| Enterprise value | 431 |
| less net debt | (106) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 325 |
| ÷ 2.45 crore shares | ₹133 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 138 | 150 | 165 | 183 | 206 |
| 10.50% | 125 | 135 | 147 | 162 | 180 |
| 11.00% | 114 | 122 | 133 | 144 | 159 |
| 11.50% | 104 | 111 | 120 | 130 | 142 |
| 12.00% | 96 | 102 | 109 | 118 | 127 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹265.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 64 · 131 · 192 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 477 | 497 | 629 | 719 | 823 | 942 | 1,079 | 1,235 | 1,415 |
| growth % | (23.8) | 4.4 | 26.4 | 14.3 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| EBITDA | 21 | 20 | 33 | 65 | 75 | 86 | 98 | 112 | 129 |
| margin % | 4.4 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 |
| less depreciation | (11) | (13) | (14) | (12) | (14) | (16) | (18) | (21) | (24) |
| EBIT | 10 | 7 | 19 | 53 | 61 | 70 | 80 | 91 | 105 |
| less tax on EBIT | (13) | (15) | (17) | (20) | (23) | (26) | |||
| NOPAT | 40 | 46 | 53 | 60 | 69 | 79 | |||
| add depreciation | 11 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 24 |
| less capex | (42) | (48) | (6) | 0 | 0 | (5) | (11) | (19) | (29) |
| less working-capital build | — | (26) | (30) | (34) | (39) | (45) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 26 | (46) | 32 | — | 34 | 34 | 33 | 32 | 29 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 32 | 29 | 26 | 22 | 18 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 112, dividends at 5.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 53 | 61 | 70 | 80 | 91 | 105 |
| Interest at 8.9% on debt | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| Profit before tax | 51 | 60 | 70 | 81 | 95 | |
| Profit after tax | 39 | 38 | 45 | 53 | 61 | 71 |
| Dividends | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | 31 | 55 | 78 | 99 | 117 |
| Working capital | 180 | 206 | 235 | 270 | 309 | 354 |
| Net block and other assets | 284 | 270 | 259 | 252 | 250 | 254 |
| Debt | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 |
| Equity | 269 | 305 | 348 | 398 | 456 | 523 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 26 | 31 | 37 | 43 | 51 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (5) | (11) | (19) | (29) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | 24 | 24 | 23 | 21 | 18 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 26 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 22 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14.5% | 9.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹133 | (50.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.