Models
KANSAI NEROLAC PAINTS LTDKANSAINERConsumer Durables
₹83per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹83implied FY26 P/E 11.2× · EV/EBITDA 7.2×
Against CMP ₹188.79−56.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹65₹118
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹158₹264
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,816 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,771 |
| Enterprise value | 6,587 |
| less net debt | 114 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,701 |
| ÷ 80.87 crore shares | ₹83 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 85 | 91 | 98 | 107 | 118 |
| 10.50% | 79 | 84 | 90 | 97 | 105 |
| 11.00% | 74 | 78 | 83 | 89 | 95 |
| 11.50% | 69 | 73 | 77 | 82 | 87 |
| 12.00% | 65 | 68 | 72 | 76 | 80 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹188.79; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 67 · 82 · 100 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,543 | 7,801 | 7,823 | 8,052 | 8,293 | 8,542 | 8,799 | 9,062 | 9,334 |
| growth % | 18.4 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| EBITDA | 818 | 1,689 | 1,572 | 911 | 937 | 965 | 994 | 1,024 | 1,055 |
| margin % | 10.8 | 21.6 | 20.1 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 |
| less depreciation | (180) | (190) | (202) | (228) | (232) | (239) | (246) | (254) | (261) |
| EBIT | 638 | 1,499 | 1,370 | 683 | 705 | 726 | 748 | 770 | 793 |
| less tax on EBIT | (189) | (195) | (201) | (207) | (213) | (220) | |||
| NOPAT | 494 | 510 | 525 | 541 | 557 | 574 | |||
| add depreciation | 180 | 190 | 202 | 228 | 232 | 239 | 246 | 254 | 261 |
| less capex | (123) | (237) | (326) | (213) | (216) | (238) | (262) | (287) | (314) |
| less working-capital build | — | (55) | (57) | (58) | (60) | (62) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 285 | 666 | 346 | — | 471 | 469 | 466 | 463 | 459 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 447 | 401 | 359 | 321 | 287 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 83, dividends at 51.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 683 | 705 | 726 | 748 | 770 | 793 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
| Profit before tax | 698 | 719 | 741 | 764 | 787 | |
| Profit after tax | 589 | 505 | 520 | 536 | 552 | 569 |
| Dividends | (303) | (260) | (267) | (275) | (284) | (292) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 197 | 404 | 601 | 787 | 961 | 1,124 |
| Working capital | 1,833 | 1,888 | 1,945 | 2,003 | 2,064 | 2,126 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,681 | 6,665 | 6,664 | 6,680 | 6,713 | 6,765 |
| Debt | 83 | 83 | 83 | 83 | 83 | 83 |
| Equity | 6,689 | 6,934 | 7,187 | 7,447 | 7,716 | 7,992 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 682 | 703 | 724 | 746 | 768 | |
| Investing (capex) | (216) | (238) | (262) | (287) | (314) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (260) | (267) | (275) | (284) | (292) | |
| Net change in cash | 207 | 197 | 186 | 175 | 162 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 466 | 464 | 462 | 458 | 455 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3% | 11.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹83 | (56.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.