Models
Karbonsteel Engineering LimiteBSE 544511Construction
₹119per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹119implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 6.8×
Against CMP ₹110.35+7.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3197%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹74₹209
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹93₹208
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 6 |
| PV of terminal value | 217 |
| Enterprise value | 223 |
| less net debt | (55) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 168 |
| ÷ 1.41 crore shares | ₹119 |
97% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 125 | 140 | 159 | 181 | 209 |
| 10.50% | 109 | 122 | 137 | 155 | 177 |
| 11.00% | 96 | 106 | 119 | 134 | 151 |
| 11.50% | 84 | 93 | 104 | 116 | 130 |
| 12.00% | 74 | 82 | 91 | 101 | 113 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹110.35; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 78 · 117 · 161 |
| Draws below the CMP | 41% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.13 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 301 | 325 | 351 | 379 | 409 | 442 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 33 | 35 | 38 | 41 | 45 | 48 |
| margin % | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (5) |
| EBIT | 29 | 32 | 34 | 37 | 40 | 43 |
| less tax on EBIT | (8) | (9) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) |
| NOPAT | 21 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 31 |
| add depreciation | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| less capex | (30) | (32) | (27) | (21) | (15) | (6) |
| less working-capital build | — | (7) | (7) | (8) | (8) | (9) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (12) | (6) | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | (11) | (5) | 1 | 7 | 13 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 55, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 29 | 32 | 34 | 37 | 40 | 43 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 27 | 30 | 32 | 35 | 38 | |
| Profit after tax | 11 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 28 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | (15) | (24) | (25) | (18) | (0) |
| Working capital | 83 | 89 | 96 | 104 | 112 | 121 |
| Net block and other assets | 175 | 203 | 226 | 243 | 253 | 254 |
| Debt | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
| Equity | 115 | 135 | 156 | 179 | 205 | 233 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 17 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 24 | |
| Investing (capex) | (32) | (27) | (21) | (15) | (6) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (15) | (9) | (1) | 8 | 18 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (15) | (9) | (1) | 8 | 18 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 10.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹119 | 7.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.