Models
KARNIKA INDUSTRIES LTDKARNIKA
₹45per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹45implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 9.5×
Against CMP ₹120.00−62.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹32₹70
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹90₹199
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 88 |
| PV of terminal value | 264 |
| Enterprise value | 352 |
| less net debt | (75) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 277 |
| ÷ 6.20 crore shares | ₹45 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 47 | 51 | 56 | 62 | 70 |
| 10.50% | 42 | 46 | 50 | 55 | 61 |
| 11.00% | 38 | 41 | 45 | 49 | 54 |
| 11.50% | 35 | 37 | 40 | 44 | 48 |
| 12.00% | 32 | 34 | 37 | 40 | 43 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹120.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 34 · 44 · 56 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.14 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 248 | 268 | 290 | 313 | 338 | 365 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 37 | 40 | 43 | 47 | 51 | 55 |
| margin % | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) |
| EBIT | 36 | 38 | 41 | 45 | 48 | 52 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) |
| NOPAT | 26 | 28 | 30 | 33 | 35 | 38 |
| add depreciation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| less capex | (0) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) |
| less working-capital build | — | (9) | (10) | (10) | (11) | (12) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 20 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 19 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 76, dividends at 2.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 36 | 38 | 41 | 45 | 48 | 52 |
| Interest at 7.2% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 33 | 36 | 39 | 43 | 47 | |
| Profit after tax | 28 | 24 | 26 | 29 | 31 | 34 |
| Dividends | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 16 | 33 | 51 | 71 | 92 |
| Working capital | 112 | 121 | 130 | 141 | 152 | 164 |
| Net block and other assets | 103 | 101 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Debt | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 |
| Equity | 98 | 122 | 147 | 175 | 206 | 239 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 17 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 25 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Net change in cash | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 21 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 16 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 15% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹45 | (62.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.