Models
KAVERI SEED CO. LTD.KSCLAgricultural Food & other Products
₹716per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹716implied FY26 P/E 14.9× · EV/EBITDA 10.8×
Against CMP ₹719.80−0.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies6.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹543₹1,064
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹705₹1,225
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 614 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,029 |
| Enterprise value | 3,643 |
| less net debt | 42 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,685 |
| ÷ 5.14 crore shares | ₹716 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 741 | 800 | 870 | 956 | 1,064 |
| 10.50% | 680 | 729 | 786 | 855 | 940 |
| 11.00% | 627 | 668 | 716 | 773 | 841 |
| 11.50% | 582 | 617 | 657 | 704 | 760 |
| 12.00% | 543 | 573 | 607 | 647 | 693 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹719.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 512 · 708 · 916 |
| Draws below the CMP | 53% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.12 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,070 | 1,148 | 1,205 | 1,395 | 1,618 | 1,877 | 2,177 | 2,525 | 2,929 |
| growth % | 10.3 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| EBITDA | 252 | 286 | 291 | 337 | 390 | 452 | 525 | 609 | 706 |
| margin % | 23.5 | 24.9 | 24.1 | 24.1 | 24.1 | 24.1 | 24.1 | 24.1 | 24.1 |
| less depreciation | (21) | (28) | (40) | (60) | (70) | (81) | (94) | (109) | (126) |
| EBIT | 231 | 258 | 251 | 277 | 320 | 372 | 431 | 500 | 580 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (11) | (12) | (14) | (17) | (19) | |||
| NOPAT | 268 | 310 | 359 | 417 | 484 | 561 | |||
| add depreciation | 21 | 28 | 40 | 60 | 70 | 81 | 94 | 109 | 126 |
| less capex | (109) | (100) | (88) | (149) | (173) | (175) | (173) | (165) | (151) |
| less working-capital build | — | (135) | (156) | (181) | (210) | (244) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 188 | 290 | 109 | — | 71 | 109 | 156 | 216 | 292 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 68 | 93 | 121 | 150 | 182 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 8.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 277 | 320 | 372 | 431 | 500 | 580 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 320 | 372 | 431 | 500 | 580 | |
| Profit after tax | 296 | 310 | 359 | 417 | 484 | 561 |
| Dividends | (26) | (27) | (31) | (36) | (42) | (48) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 42 | 86 | 164 | 285 | 460 | 703 |
| Working capital | 843 | 977 | 1,134 | 1,315 | 1,526 | 1,770 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,875 | 1,978 | 2,072 | 2,151 | 2,208 | 2,233 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,754 | 2,038 | 2,366 | 2,747 | 3,189 | 3,702 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 245 | 284 | 329 | 382 | 443 | |
| Investing (capex) | (173) | (175) | (173) | (165) | (151) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (27) | (31) | (36) | (42) | (48) | |
| Net change in cash | 45 | 78 | 121 | 175 | 243 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 71 | 109 | 156 | 216 | 292 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16% | 24.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹716 | (0.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.