Models
KCP LTDKCPCement & Cement Products
₹174per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹174implied FY26 P/E 13.1× · EV/EBITDA 8.6×
Against CMP ₹162.99+6.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(1.6)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹119₹283
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹125₹208
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 480 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,399 |
| Enterprise value | 2,879 |
| less net debt | (641) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,238 |
| ÷ 12.89 crore shares | ₹174 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 181 | 200 | 222 | 249 | 283 |
| 10.50% | 162 | 177 | 196 | 218 | 244 |
| 11.00% | 146 | 158 | 174 | 192 | 213 |
| 11.50% | 131 | 142 | 155 | 170 | 187 |
| 12.00% | 119 | 128 | 139 | 152 | 166 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹162.99; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 128 · 172 · 224 |
| Draws below the CMP | 40% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,254 | 2,847 | 2,529 | 2,576 | 2,628 | 2,680 | 2,734 | 2,789 | 2,844 |
| growth % | 6.9 | 26.3 | (11.2) | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| EBITDA | 174 | 354 | 306 | 334 | 342 | 348 | 355 | 363 | 370 |
| margin % | 7.7 | 12.4 | 12.1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| less depreciation | (90) | (89) | (85) | (85) | (87) | (88) | (90) | (92) | (94) |
| EBIT | 84 | 264 | 221 | 249 | 255 | 260 | 265 | 270 | 276 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (12) | (12) | |||
| NOPAT | 238 | 244 | 249 | 254 | 259 | 264 | |||
| add depreciation | 90 | 89 | 85 | 85 | 87 | 88 | 90 | 92 | 94 |
| less capex | (34) | (33) | (202) | (273) | (279) | (240) | (199) | (157) | (113) |
| less working-capital build | — | (13) | (13) | (14) | (14) | (14) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (106) | 72 | (42) | — | 39 | 84 | 131 | 180 | 231 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 37 | 72 | 101 | 125 | 144 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 662, dividends at 77.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 249 | 255 | 260 | 265 | 270 | 276 |
| Interest at 5.5% on debt | (36) | (36) | (36) | (36) | (36) | |
| Profit before tax | 218 | 224 | 229 | 234 | 239 | |
| Profit after tax | 197 | 209 | 214 | 219 | 224 | 229 |
| Dividends | (152) | (161) | (165) | (169) | (173) | (177) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 21 | (136) | (252) | (324) | (351) | (332) |
| Working capital | 656 | 670 | 683 | 697 | 711 | 725 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,905 | 3,096 | 3,248 | 3,356 | 3,421 | 3,440 |
| Debt | 662 | 662 | 662 | 662 | 662 | 662 |
| Equity | 2,261 | 2,309 | 2,358 | 2,408 | 2,459 | 2,512 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 283 | 289 | 295 | 302 | 309 | |
| Investing (capex) | (279) | (240) | (199) | (157) | (113) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (161) | (165) | (169) | (173) | (177) | |
| Net change in cash | (157) | (116) | (72) | (27) | 19 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 4 | 49 | 96 | 145 | 196 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2% | 13% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹174 | 6.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.