Models
KEC INTL. LIMITEDKECConstruction
₹587per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹587implied FY26 P/E 28.2× · EV/EBITDA 12.7×
Against CMP ₹406.10+44.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies1.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹413₹933
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹389₹938
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 4,746 |
| PV of terminal value | 15,567 |
| Enterprise value | 20,313 |
| less net debt | (4,692) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 15,621 |
| ÷ 26.62 crore shares | ₹587 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 612 | 670 | 740 | 826 | 933 |
| 10.50% | 551 | 599 | 657 | 725 | 809 |
| 11.00% | 498 | 539 | 587 | 643 | 710 |
| 11.50% | 453 | 488 | 528 | 575 | 630 |
| 12.00% | 413 | 443 | 477 | 517 | 563 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹406.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 454 · 584 · 740 |
| Draws below the CMP | 3% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.39 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 17,282 | 19,914 | 21,847 | 23,506 | 25,268 | 27,164 | 29,201 | 31,391 | 33,745 |
| growth % | 25.8 | 15.2 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| EBITDA | 830 | 1,215 | 1,504 | 1,600 | 1,718 | 1,847 | 1,986 | 2,135 | 2,295 |
| margin % | 4.8 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
| less depreciation | (161) | (185) | (184) | (197) | (202) | (217) | (234) | (251) | (270) |
| EBIT | 668 | 1,029 | 1,320 | 1,402 | 1,516 | 1,630 | 1,752 | 1,883 | 2,025 |
| less tax on EBIT | (327) | (353) | (380) | (408) | (439) | (472) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,076 | 1,163 | 1,250 | 1,344 | 1,445 | 1,553 | |||
| add depreciation | 161 | 185 | 184 | 197 | 202 | 217 | 234 | 251 | 270 |
| less capex | (178) | (237) | (183) | (329) | (354) | (350) | (345) | (336) | (324) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 428 | 74 | 237 | — | 1,011 | 1,117 | 1,233 | 1,360 | 1,499 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 960 | 955 | 950 | 944 | 937 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 5,103, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,402 | 1,516 | 1,630 | 1,752 | 1,883 | 2,025 |
| Interest at 14.6% on debt | (745) | (745) | (745) | (745) | (745) | |
| Profit before tax | 771 | 885 | 1,007 | 1,138 | 1,280 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 591 | 679 | 772 | 873 | 981 |
| Dividends | (146) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 411 | 851 | 1,397 | 2,058 | 2,846 | 3,774 |
| Working capital | (696) | (696) | (696) | (696) | (696) | (696) |
| Net block and other assets | 25,442 | 25,594 | 25,727 | 25,838 | 25,923 | 25,977 |
| Debt | 5,103 | 5,103 | 5,103 | 5,103 | 5,103 | 5,103 |
| Equity | 6,160 | 6,751 | 7,430 | 8,202 | 9,075 | 10,057 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 794 | 896 | 1,006 | 1,124 | 1,251 | |
| Investing (capex) | (354) | (350) | (345) | (336) | (324) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 440 | 545 | 661 | 788 | 927 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 440 | 545 | 661 | 788 | 927 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7.5% | 6.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹587 | 44.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.