Models
KEI INDUSTRIES LTD.KEIIndustrial Products
₹968per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹968implied FY26 P/E 9.3× · EV/EBITDA 6.5×
Against CMP ₹4,578.00−78.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31111%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹698₹1,512
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3,729₹5,899
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (878) |
| PV of terminal value | 8,879 |
| Enterprise value | 8,000 |
| less net debt | 1,258 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 9,258 |
| ÷ 9.56 crore shares | ₹968 |
111% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,003 | 1,096 | 1,207 | 1,343 | 1,512 |
| 10.50% | 909 | 986 | 1,077 | 1,186 | 1,319 |
| 11.00% | 828 | 893 | 968 | 1,058 | 1,165 |
| 11.50% | 759 | 814 | 877 | 952 | 1,039 |
| 12.00% | 698 | 746 | 800 | 862 | 935 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹4,578.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 551 · 951 · 1,330 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.34 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,912 | 8,104 | 9,736 | 11,748 | 14,156 | 17,058 | 20,555 | 24,769 | 29,846 |
| growth % | 20.7 | 17.2 | 20.1 | 20.7 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 |
| EBITDA | 706 | 837 | 991 | 1,229 | 1,486 | 1,791 | 2,158 | 2,601 | 3,134 |
| margin % | 10.2 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| less depreciation | (57) | (61) | (70) | (91) | (113) | (136) | (164) | (198) | (239) |
| EBIT | 649 | 776 | 921 | 1,138 | 1,373 | 1,655 | 1,994 | 2,403 | 2,895 |
| less tax on EBIT | (290) | (350) | (422) | (508) | (613) | (738) | |||
| NOPAT | 848 | 1,023 | 1,233 | 1,485 | 1,790 | 2,157 | |||
| add depreciation | 57 | 61 | 70 | 91 | 113 | 136 | 164 | 198 | 239 |
| less capex | (76) | (255) | (691) | (1,132) | (1,359) | (1,269) | (1,085) | (773) | (287) |
| less working-capital build | — | (595) | (717) | (864) | (1,041) | (1,254) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 438 | 355 | (723) | — | (818) | (617) | (299) | 174 | 855 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (776) | (527) | (230) | 121 | 535 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 186, dividends at 4.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,138 | 1,373 | 1,655 | 1,994 | 2,403 | 2,895 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,358 | 1,640 | 1,979 | 2,388 | 2,880 | |
| Profit after tax | 918 | 1,012 | 1,222 | 1,474 | 1,779 | 2,146 |
| Dividends | (43) | (48) | (57) | (69) | (84) | (101) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,444 | 568 | (117) | (497) | (417) | 326 |
| Working capital | 2,906 | 3,501 | 4,218 | 5,082 | 6,123 | 7,377 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,606 | 5,851 | 6,984 | 7,905 | 8,479 | 8,527 |
| Debt | 186 | 186 | 186 | 186 | 186 | 186 |
| Equity | 6,665 | 7,629 | 8,793 | 10,198 | 11,894 | 13,939 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 530 | 641 | 775 | 936 | 1,130 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,359) | (1,269) | (1,085) | (773) | (287) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (48) | (57) | (69) | (84) | (101) | |
| Net change in cash | (876) | (685) | (380) | 80 | 743 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (829) | (628) | (310) | 163 | 844 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 20.5% | 10.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹968 | (78.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.