Models
KELLTON TECH SOL LTDKELLTONTECIT - Services
₹24per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹24implied FY26 P/E 14.4× · EV/EBITDA 10.5×
Against CMP ₹11.24+114.4%close of 29 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹18₹36
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹11₹23
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 328 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,094 |
| Enterprise value | 1,422 |
| less net debt | (141) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,281 |
| ÷ 53.14 crore shares | ₹24 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 25 | 27 | 30 | 33 | 36 |
| 10.50% | 23 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 32 |
| 11.00% | 21 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 28 |
| 11.50% | 19 | 21 | 22 | 24 | 26 |
| 12.00% | 18 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 23 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹11.24; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 18 · 24 · 30 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.52 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.10 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 917 | 983 | 1,098 | 1,217 | 1,351 | 1,499 | 1,664 | 1,847 | 2,051 |
| growth % | 8.9 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | (91) | 104 | — | 136 | 150 | 166 | 185 | 205 | 228 |
| margin % | (9.9) | 10.6 | — | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| less depreciation | (14) | (16) | — | (15) | (18) | (19) | (22) | (24) | (27) |
| EBIT | (105) | 88 | — | 120 | 132 | 147 | 163 | 181 | 201 |
| less tax on EBIT | (18) | (19) | (21) | (24) | (26) | (29) | |||
| NOPAT | 103 | 113 | 125 | 139 | 155 | 172 | |||
| add depreciation | 14 | 16 | — | 15 | 18 | 19 | 22 | 24 | 27 |
| less capex | (21) | (22) | (11) | (20) | (22) | (24) | (26) | (29) | (32) |
| less working-capital build | — | (40) | (45) | (49) | (55) | (61) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 3 | 35 | (5) | — | 69 | 77 | 85 | 95 | 105 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 65 | 65 | 66 | 66 | 66 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 179, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 120 | 132 | 147 | 163 | 181 | 201 |
| Interest at 11.8% on debt | (21) | (21) | (21) | (21) | (21) | |
| Profit before tax | 111 | 126 | 142 | 160 | 180 | |
| Profit after tax | 92 | 95 | 107 | 121 | 137 | 154 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 37 | 88 | 147 | 214 | 291 | 378 |
| Working capital | 365 | 406 | 450 | 500 | 555 | 616 |
| Net block and other assets | 726 | 730 | 735 | 739 | 744 | 749 |
| Debt | 179 | 179 | 179 | 179 | 179 | 179 |
| Equity | 807 | 902 | 1,010 | 1,131 | 1,268 | 1,421 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 72 | 82 | 93 | 106 | 119 | |
| Investing (capex) | (22) | (24) | (26) | (29) | (32) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 51 | 59 | 67 | 77 | 87 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 51 | 59 | 67 | 77 | 87 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 11.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹24 | 114.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.