Models
KELTECH ENERGIES LTD.BSE 506528Chemicals & Petrochemicals
₹2,251per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,251implied FY26 P/E 6.1× · EV/EBITDA 6.4×
Against CMP ₹11,801.30−80.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31129%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,199₹4,375
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,900₹14,800
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (81) |
| PV of terminal value | 363 |
| Enterprise value | 282 |
| less net debt | (57) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 225 |
| ÷ 0.10 crore shares | ₹2,251 |
129% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,382 | 2,745 | 3,179 | 3,711 | 4,375 |
| 10.50% | 2,015 | 2,316 | 2,672 | 3,099 | 3,620 |
| 11.00% | 1,702 | 1,956 | 2,251 | 2,600 | 3,020 |
| 11.50% | 1,433 | 1,649 | 1,897 | 2,188 | 2,531 |
| 12.00% | 1,199 | 1,384 | 1,596 | 1,841 | 2,126 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹11,801.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,392 · 2,204 · 3,225 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.22 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 563 | 449 | 488 | 532 | 580 | 632 | 689 | 751 | 819 |
| growth % | 58.4 | (20.2) | 8.6 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| EBITDA | 26 | 32 | 36 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 57 | 62 | 68 |
| margin % | 4.6 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (11) |
| EBIT | 20 | 26 | 29 | 36 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 56 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (14) | (15) | |||
| NOPAT | 27 | 30 | 32 | 35 | 38 | 42 | |||
| add depreciation | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| less capex | (5) | (9) | (12) | (86) | (93) | (79) | (61) | (40) | (14) |
| less working-capital build | — | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 13 | 42 | (30) | — | (59) | (41) | (20) | 5 | 35 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (56) | (35) | (16) | 3 | 22 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 72, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 36 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 56 |
| Interest at 7.6% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 35 | 38 | 42 | 46 | 51 | |
| Profit after tax | 29 | 26 | 28 | 31 | 34 | 38 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 15 | (48) | (93) | (117) | (116) | (85) |
| Working capital | 35 | 38 | 41 | 45 | 49 | 53 |
| Net block and other assets | 306 | 391 | 461 | 513 | 542 | 544 |
| Debt | 72 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 72 |
| Equity | 153 | 178 | 207 | 238 | 272 | 310 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 31 | 34 | 37 | 41 | 45 | |
| Investing (capex) | (93) | (79) | (61) | (40) | (14) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (63) | (45) | (24) | 1 | 31 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (63) | (45) | (24) | 1 | 31 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9% | 8.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,251 | (80.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.