Models
KERNEX MICROSYS(I) LTDKERNEXTransport Services
₹1,291per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,291implied FY26 P/E 11.4× · EV/EBITDA 15.7×
Against CMP ₹1,738.00−25.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹953₹1,966
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹850₹2,580
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 406 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,924 |
| Enterprise value | 2,330 |
| less net debt | (161) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,169 |
| ÷ 1.68 crore shares | ₹1,291 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,339 | 1,453 | 1,590 | 1,757 | 1,966 |
| 10.50% | 1,220 | 1,315 | 1,427 | 1,561 | 1,725 |
| 11.00% | 1,118 | 1,198 | 1,291 | 1,401 | 1,533 |
| 11.50% | 1,030 | 1,098 | 1,176 | 1,268 | 1,376 |
| 12.00% | 953 | 1,011 | 1,078 | 1,155 | 1,245 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,738.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 920 · 1,257 · 1,668 |
| Draws below the CMP | 93% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.15 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4 | 20 | 190 | 430 | 559 | 727 | 945 | 1,229 | 1,597 |
| growth % | (39.3) | 385.1 | 868.3 | 126.7 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | (17) | (21) | 41 | 149 | 194 | 252 | 327 | 425 | 553 |
| margin % | (423.7) | (105.9) | 21.5 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.6 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (5) | (3) | (6) | (8) | (10) | (13) | (17) | (22) |
| EBIT | (20) | (26) | 38 | 143 | 186 | 241 | 314 | 408 | 530 |
| less tax on EBIT | (35) | (46) | (59) | (77) | (100) | (130) | |||
| NOPAT | 108 | 140 | 182 | 237 | 308 | 400 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 22 |
| less capex | (1) | (2) | (4) | (15) | (19) | (22) | (24) | (26) | (27) |
| less working-capital build | — | (74) | (96) | (124) | (162) | (210) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (28) | (74) | 10 | — | 55 | 75 | 102 | 137 | 185 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 52 | 64 | 78 | 95 | 116 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 162, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 143 | 186 | 241 | 314 | 408 | 530 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | |
| Profit before tax | 173 | 228 | 301 | 395 | 517 | |
| Profit after tax | 88 | 130 | 172 | 227 | 298 | 390 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 47 | 112 | 204 | 331 | 507 |
| Working capital | 245 | 319 | 414 | 539 | 700 | 910 |
| Net block and other assets | 673 | 684 | 695 | 706 | 715 | 719 |
| Debt | 162 | 162 | 162 | 162 | 162 | 162 |
| Equity | 247 | 378 | 550 | 777 | 1,075 | 1,465 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 64 | 87 | 116 | 153 | 202 | |
| Investing (capex) | (19) | (22) | (24) | (26) | (27) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 45 | 65 | 92 | 127 | 176 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 45 | 65 | 92 | 127 | 176 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 34.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,291 | (25.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.