Models
KESAR INDIA LIMITEDBSE 543542Realty
₹188per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹188implied FY26 P/E 14.2× · EV/EBITDA 12.7×
Against CMP ₹1,179.95−84.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹141₹281
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹622₹1,341
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 96 |
| PV of terminal value | 451 |
| Enterprise value | 547 |
| less net debt | (11) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 536 |
| ÷ 2.86 crore shares | ₹188 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 194 | 210 | 229 | 252 | 281 |
| 10.50% | 178 | 191 | 206 | 225 | 247 |
| 11.00% | 164 | 175 | 188 | 203 | 221 |
| 11.50% | 152 | 161 | 172 | 184 | 199 |
| 12.00% | 141 | 149 | 158 | 169 | 181 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,179.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 123 · 183 · 246 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.37 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.12 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 53 | 108 | 176 | 229 | 298 | 388 | 504 | 655 |
| growth % | — | 101.8 | 63.7 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | — | — | 43 | 56 | 73 | 95 | 123 | 161 |
| margin % | — | — | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 |
| less depreciation | — | — | (3) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (11) |
| EBIT | — | — | 40 | 52 | 68 | 88 | 115 | 149 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (13) | (16) | (21) | (28) | (36) | ||
| NOPAT | 30 | 40 | 52 | 67 | 87 | 113 | ||
| add depreciation | — | — | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 |
| less capex | — | (3) | (5) | (7) | (8) | (10) | (11) | (13) |
| less working-capital build | — | (24) | (31) | (40) | (52) | (68) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (11) | — | 13 | 18 | 24 | 32 | 43 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 13 | 15 | 19 | 22 | 27 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 42, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 40 | 52 | 68 | 88 | 115 | 149 |
| Interest at 8.8% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 49 | 64 | 85 | 111 | 146 | |
| Profit after tax | 30 | 37 | 49 | 64 | 84 | 111 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 31 | 42 | 57 | 78 | 107 | 148 |
| Working capital | 79 | 103 | 134 | 174 | 226 | 293 |
| Net block and other assets | 329 | 331 | 334 | 337 | 340 | 342 |
| Debt | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 |
| Equity | 249 | 286 | 335 | 399 | 484 | 594 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 17 | 23 | 31 | 41 | 54 | |
| Investing (capex) | (7) | (8) | (10) | (11) | (13) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 10 | 15 | 21 | 30 | 41 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 10 | 15 | 21 | 30 | 41 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 24.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹188 | (84.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.