Models
KESAR TERMINALS & INFRASTRUCTUBSE 533289Transport Services
₹849per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹849implied FY25 P/E 19.3× · EV/EBITDA 18.8×
Against CMP ₹62.80+1252.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3075%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹656₹1,235
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹54₹107
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 232 |
| PV of terminal value | 712 |
| Enterprise value | 944 |
| less net debt | (16) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 928 |
| ÷ 1.09 crore shares | ₹849 |
75% of the value sits after FY30. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 878 | 943 | 1,021 | 1,116 | 1,235 |
| 10.50% | 809 | 863 | 927 | 1,004 | 1,097 |
| 11.00% | 751 | 796 | 849 | 912 | 987 |
| 11.50% | 700 | 739 | 784 | 836 | 897 |
| 12.00% | 656 | 689 | 727 | 771 | 822 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹62.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 670 · 844 · 1,064 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.63 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.53 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 43 | 37 | 31 | 36 | 42 | 49 | 56 | 65 | 76 |
| growth % | (5.2) | (13.1) | (15.6) | 15.8 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| EBITDA | 13 | 15 | 9 | 50 | 58 | 68 | 78 | 91 | 105 |
| margin % | 29.5 | 41.1 | 27.5 | 139.0 | 139.0 | 139.0 | 139.0 | 139.0 | 139.0 |
| less depreciation | (12) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (12) | (14) | (17) | (19) | (22) |
| EBIT | 1 | 4 | (3) | 40 | 46 | 53 | 62 | 72 | 83 |
| less tax on EBIT | (5) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (9) | (10) | |||
| NOPAT | 35 | 40 | 47 | 54 | 63 | 73 | |||
| add depreciation | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 22 |
| less capex | (1) | (2) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (4) | (10) | (17) | (27) |
| less working-capital build | — | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 11 | 11 | 10 | — | 52 | 56 | 61 | 65 | 69 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 50 | 48 | 47 | 45 | 43 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 17, dividends at 0.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 40 | 46 | 53 | 62 | 72 | 83 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 45 | 52 | 61 | 70 | 82 | |
| Profit after tax | 8 | 39 | 46 | 53 | 62 | 72 |
| Dividends | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 52 | 107 | 167 | 230 | 297 |
| Working capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Net block and other assets | 188 | 176 | 166 | 159 | 158 | 162 |
| Debt | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Equity | (88) | (49) | (3) | 50 | 112 | 184 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 51 | 60 | 70 | 81 | 94 | |
| Investing (capex) | (0) | (4) | (10) | (17) | (27) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Net change in cash | 51 | 55 | 59 | 63 | 67 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 51 | 55 | 60 | 64 | 67 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16% | 139% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹849 | 1252.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.