Models
KEWAL KIRAN CLOTHING LTDKKCLTextiles & Apparels
₹316per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹316implied FY26 P/E 13.2× · EV/EBITDA 7.7×
Against CMP ₹492.15−35.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹250₹447
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹408₹595
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 455 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,374 |
| Enterprise value | 1,829 |
| less net debt | 128 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,957 |
| ÷ 6.20 crore shares | ₹316 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 325 | 347 | 374 | 406 | 447 |
| 10.50% | 302 | 320 | 342 | 368 | 400 |
| 11.00% | 282 | 298 | 316 | 337 | 363 |
| 11.50% | 265 | 278 | 293 | 311 | 332 |
| 12.00% | 250 | 261 | 274 | 289 | 306 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹492.15; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 196 · 311 · 420 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.34 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.29 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 779 | 861 | 1,003 | 1,213 | 1,467 | 1,776 | 2,148 | 2,600 | 3,146 |
| growth % | 28.3 | 10.4 | 16.5 | 20.9 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 |
| EBITDA | 152 | 177 | 191 | 238 | 288 | 348 | 421 | 510 | 617 |
| margin % | 19.5 | 20.6 | 19.0 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (10) | (32) | (44) | (54) | (66) | (79) | (96) | (116) |
| EBIT | 143 | 167 | 158 | 194 | 233 | 282 | 342 | 413 | 500 |
| less tax on EBIT | (48) | (58) | (70) | (85) | (103) | (125) | |||
| NOPAT | 145 | 175 | 212 | 257 | 310 | 376 | |||
| add depreciation | 9 | 10 | 32 | 44 | 54 | 66 | 79 | 96 | 116 |
| less capex | (24) | (10) | (85) | (21) | (25) | (42) | (66) | (98) | (140) |
| less working-capital build | — | (103) | (124) | (150) | (182) | (220) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 51 | 126 | (71) | — | 102 | 111 | 120 | 127 | 132 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 97 | 95 | 92 | 88 | 83 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 48, dividends at 17.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 194 | 233 | 282 | 342 | 413 | 500 |
| Interest at 18.6% on debt | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | |
| Profit before tax | 224 | 273 | 333 | 404 | 491 | |
| Profit after tax | 142 | 169 | 205 | 250 | 304 | 369 |
| Dividends | (25) | (30) | (36) | (44) | (54) | (65) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 176 | 241 | 309 | 378 | 445 | 505 |
| Working capital | 488 | 591 | 715 | 866 | 1,047 | 1,267 |
| Net block and other assets | 832 | 803 | 780 | 766 | 768 | 791 |
| Debt | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 |
| Equity | 1,119 | 1,258 | 1,427 | 1,633 | 1,883 | 2,186 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 120 | 147 | 179 | 218 | 265 | |
| Investing (capex) | (25) | (42) | (66) | (98) | (140) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (30) | (36) | (44) | (54) | (65) | |
| Net change in cash | 65 | 68 | 69 | 67 | 60 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 95 | 104 | 113 | 120 | 126 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21% | 19.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹316 | (35.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.