Models
Khazanchi Jewellers LimitedBSE 543953Consumer Durables
₹375per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹375implied FY26 P/E 6.5× · EV/EBITDA 8.3×
Against CMP ₹755.00−50.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹277₹572
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹577₹813
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 212 |
| PV of terminal value | 824 |
| Enterprise value | 1,036 |
| less net debt | (107) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 929 |
| ÷ 2.47 crore shares | ₹375 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 390 | 423 | 463 | 511 | 572 |
| 10.50% | 355 | 382 | 415 | 454 | 502 |
| 11.00% | 325 | 348 | 375 | 407 | 446 |
| 11.50% | 299 | 319 | 342 | 368 | 400 |
| 12.00% | 277 | 294 | 313 | 336 | 362 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹755.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 235 · 370 · 499 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.37 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 821 | 1,772 | 2,049 | 2,367 | 2,734 | 3,157 | 3,647 | 4,212 |
| growth % | — | 115.9 | 15.6 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| EBITDA | — | — | 125 | 144 | 167 | 193 | 222 | 257 |
| margin % | — | — | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 |
| less depreciation | — | — | (1) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| EBIT | — | — | 125 | 144 | 167 | 193 | 222 | 257 |
| less tax on EBIT | (32) | (38) | (43) | (50) | (58) | (67) | ||
| NOPAT | 92 | 107 | 123 | 143 | 165 | 190 | ||
| add depreciation | — | — | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| less capex | — | (4) | (6) | (7) | (6) | (5) | (3) | 0 |
| less working-capital build | — | (62) | (72) | (83) | (96) | (111) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (4) | — | 37 | 45 | 55 | 66 | 79 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 36 | 39 | 42 | 46 | 50 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 110, dividends at 1.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 125 | 144 | 167 | 193 | 222 | 257 |
| Interest at 5.1% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 139 | 161 | 187 | 217 | 251 | |
| Profit after tax | 89 | 103 | 119 | 138 | 160 | 186 |
| Dividends | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4 | 35 | 75 | 124 | 183 | 256 |
| Working capital | 403 | 465 | 537 | 620 | 716 | 826 |
| Net block and other assets | 60 | 67 | 73 | 78 | 81 | 81 |
| Debt | 110 | 110 | 110 | 110 | 110 | 110 |
| Equity | 320 | 421 | 538 | 675 | 833 | 1,016 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 40 | 47 | 55 | 65 | 75 | |
| Investing (capex) | (7) | (6) | (5) | (3) | 0 | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | |
| Net change in cash | 32 | 40 | 49 | 60 | 73 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 33 | 41 | 51 | 62 | 75 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 15.5% | 6.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹375 | (50.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.