Models
KIRI INDUSTRIES LIMITEDKIRIINDUSChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹20,822per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹20,822implied FY26 P/E 21.7× · EV/EBITDA 23.9×
Against CMP ₹534.40+3796.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹16,031₹30,385
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹334₹779
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 29,737 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,05,443 |
| Enterprise value | 1,35,180 |
| less net debt | 511 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,35,691 |
| ÷ 6.52 crore shares | ₹20,822 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 21,517 | 23,129 | 25,064 | 27,429 | 30,385 |
| 10.50% | 19,826 | 21,166 | 22,749 | 24,649 | 26,971 |
| 11.00% | 18,378 | 19,506 | 20,822 | 22,377 | 24,243 |
| 11.50% | 17,125 | 18,085 | 19,193 | 20,485 | 22,013 |
| 12.00% | 16,031 | 16,856 | 17,799 | 18,887 | 20,156 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹534.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 16,865 · 20,755 · 25,418 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.63 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.59 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.45 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 945 | 949 | 740 | 840 | 953 | 1,082 | 1,228 | 1,393 | 1,582 |
| growth % | (36.9) | 0.4 | (22.0) | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| EBITDA | (37) | (12) | (54) | 5,660 | 6,424 | 7,291 | 8,276 | 9,393 | 10,661 |
| margin % | (4.0) | (1.3) | (7.3) | 674.1 | 674.1 | 674.1 | 674.1 | 674.1 | 674.1 |
| less depreciation | (49) | (49) | (45) | (47) | (53) | (61) | (69) | (78) | (89) |
| EBIT | (86) | (61) | (98) | 5,613 | 6,371 | 7,231 | 8,207 | 9,315 | 10,572 |
| less tax on EBIT | (213) | (242) | (275) | (312) | (354) | (402) | |||
| NOPAT | 5,400 | 6,129 | 6,956 | 7,895 | 8,961 | 10,171 | |||
| add depreciation | 49 | 49 | 45 | 47 | 53 | 61 | 69 | 78 | 89 |
| less capex | (22) | (9) | (407) | (287) | (326) | (296) | (251) | (189) | (106) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 67 | (69) | (749) | — | 5,856 | 6,721 | 7,713 | 8,850 | 10,153 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 5,558 | 5,747 | 5,942 | 6,142 | 6,348 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 41, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 5,613 | 6,371 | 7,231 | 8,207 | 9,315 | 10,572 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 6,368 | 7,228 | 8,204 | 9,312 | 10,569 | |
| Profit after tax | 5,567 | 6,126 | 6,953 | 7,892 | 8,958 | 10,168 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 551 | 6,404 | 13,122 | 20,832 | 29,678 | 39,828 |
| Working capital | (89) | (89) | (89) | (89) | (89) | (89) |
| Net block and other assets | 6,577 | 6,850 | 7,085 | 7,267 | 7,378 | 7,396 |
| Debt | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 |
| Equity | 6,445 | 12,571 | 19,524 | 27,416 | 36,374 | 46,541 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 6,179 | 7,014 | 7,961 | 9,036 | 10,256 | |
| Investing (capex) | (326) | (296) | (251) | (189) | (106) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 5,853 | 6,718 | 7,710 | 8,847 | 10,150 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 5,853 | 6,718 | 7,710 | 8,847 | 10,150 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13.5% | 674.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹20,822 | 3796.3% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.