Models
KIRLOSKAR FERROUS IND LTDKIRLFERFerrous Metals
₹248per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹248implied FY26 P/E 11.4× · EV/EBITDA 6.1×
Against CMP ₹464.95−46.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹177₹391
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹408₹513
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,051 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,991 |
| Enterprise value | 5,042 |
| less net debt | (947) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,095 |
| ÷ 16.49 crore shares | ₹248 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 259 | 283 | 312 | 347 | 391 |
| 10.50% | 233 | 253 | 277 | 306 | 340 |
| 11.00% | 212 | 229 | 248 | 272 | 299 |
| 11.50% | 193 | 207 | 224 | 243 | 266 |
| 12.00% | 177 | 189 | 203 | 219 | 238 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹464.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 176 · 246 · 326 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,417 | 6,146 | 6,564 | 6,889 | 7,233 | 7,595 | 7,974 | 8,373 | 8,792 |
| growth % | 71.2 | (4.2) | 6.8 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| EBITDA | 836 | 793 | 756 | 827 | 868 | 911 | 957 | 1,005 | 1,055 |
| margin % | 13.0 | 12.9 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| less depreciation | (173) | (239) | (256) | (267) | (282) | (296) | (311) | (327) | (343) |
| EBIT | 663 | 554 | 500 | 560 | 586 | 615 | 646 | 678 | 712 |
| less tax on EBIT | (157) | (164) | (172) | (181) | (190) | (199) | |||
| NOPAT | 403 | 422 | 443 | 465 | 488 | 513 | |||
| add depreciation | 173 | 239 | 256 | 267 | 282 | 296 | 311 | 327 | 343 |
| less capex | (481) | (534) | (485) | (448) | (470) | (459) | (446) | (430) | (411) |
| less working-capital build | — | (49) | (52) | (54) | (57) | (60) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 313 | 28 | 170 | — | 185 | 228 | 276 | 328 | 384 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 175 | 195 | 213 | 228 | 240 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,034, dividends at 25.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 560 | 586 | 615 | 646 | 678 | 712 |
| Interest at 10.9% on debt | (113) | (113) | (113) | (113) | (113) | |
| Profit before tax | 473 | 502 | 533 | 565 | 599 | |
| Profit after tax | 358 | 341 | 362 | 384 | 407 | 432 |
| Dividends | (91) | (86) | (92) | (97) | (103) | (109) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 87 | 104 | 160 | 257 | 401 | 595 |
| Working capital | 983 | 1,033 | 1,084 | 1,139 | 1,196 | 1,255 |
| Net block and other assets | 5,489 | 5,677 | 5,840 | 5,975 | 6,078 | 6,147 |
| Debt | 1,034 | 1,034 | 1,034 | 1,034 | 1,034 | 1,034 |
| Equity | 3,713 | 3,968 | 4,238 | 4,525 | 4,829 | 5,151 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 573 | 606 | 641 | 677 | 715 | |
| Investing (capex) | (470) | (459) | (446) | (430) | (411) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (86) | (92) | (97) | (103) | (109) | |
| Net change in cash | 17 | 56 | 98 | 144 | 194 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 103 | 147 | 195 | 247 | 303 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5% | 12% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹248 | (46.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.