Models
KIRLOSKAR INDUSTRIES LTDKIRLOSINDIndustrial Products
₹4,615per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹4,615implied FY26 P/E 32.5× · EV/EBITDA 5.7×
Against CMP ₹3,835.00+20.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(9.6)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹3,552₹6,739
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,463₹4,575
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 977 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,777 |
| Enterprise value | 4,754 |
| less net debt | 97 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,851 |
| ÷ 1.05 crore shares | ₹4,615 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 4,769 | 5,127 | 5,557 | 6,082 | 6,739 |
| 10.50% | 4,394 | 4,691 | 5,043 | 5,465 | 5,981 |
| 11.00% | 4,073 | 4,323 | 4,615 | 4,961 | 5,375 |
| 11.50% | 3,795 | 4,008 | 4,254 | 4,541 | 4,881 |
| 12.00% | 3,552 | 3,736 | 3,945 | 4,187 | 4,469 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,835.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 3,524 · 4,594 · 5,784 |
| Draws below the CMP | 19% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,466 | 6,368 | 6,608 | 6,939 | 7,286 | 7,650 | 8,032 | 8,434 | 8,856 |
| growth % | 70.9 | (1.5) | 3.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| EBITDA | 861 | 877 | 781 | 839 | 882 | 926 | 972 | 1,021 | 1,072 |
| margin % | 13.3 | 13.8 | 11.8 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 |
| less depreciation | (176) | (242) | (259) | (272) | (284) | (298) | (313) | (329) | (345) |
| EBIT | 685 | 635 | 522 | 567 | 597 | 627 | 659 | 692 | 726 |
| less tax on EBIT | (178) | (188) | (197) | (207) | (217) | (228) | |||
| NOPAT | 389 | 410 | 430 | 452 | 474 | 498 | |||
| add depreciation | 176 | 242 | 259 | 272 | 284 | 298 | 313 | 329 | 345 |
| less capex | (482) | (499) | (509) | (451) | (474) | (462) | (449) | (433) | (414) |
| less working-capital build | — | (54) | (56) | (59) | (62) | (65) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 279 | 77 | 89 | — | 167 | 210 | 257 | 308 | 364 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 158 | 179 | 198 | 214 | 227 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 39.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 567 | 597 | 627 | 659 | 692 | 726 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 597 | 627 | 659 | 692 | 726 | |
| Profit after tax | 159 | 410 | 430 | 452 | 474 | 498 |
| Dividends | (63) | (161) | (169) | (178) | (186) | (196) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 97 | 103 | 144 | 223 | 344 | 512 |
| Working capital | 1,074 | 1,128 | 1,184 | 1,244 | 1,306 | 1,371 |
| Net block and other assets | 10,489 | 10,678 | 10,842 | 10,978 | 11,082 | 11,151 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 8,197 | 8,446 | 8,707 | 8,981 | 9,269 | 9,571 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 640 | 672 | 706 | 741 | 778 | |
| Investing (capex) | (474) | (462) | (449) | (433) | (414) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (161) | (169) | (178) | (186) | (196) | |
| Net change in cash | 6 | 41 | 79 | 122 | 168 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 167 | 210 | 257 | 308 | 364 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5% | 12.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹4,615 | 20.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.