Models
KIRLOSKAR OIL ENG LTDKIRLOSENGIndustrial Products
₹1,374per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,374implied FY26 P/E 36.6× · EV/EBITDA 17.7×
Against CMP ₹2,170.00−36.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies34.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹970₹2,182
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹865₹2,720
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 4,639 |
| PV of terminal value | 19,894 |
| Enterprise value | 24,533 |
| less net debt | (4,550) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 19,983 |
| ÷ 14.54 crore shares | ₹1,374 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,432 | 1,569 | 1,732 | 1,932 | 2,182 |
| 10.50% | 1,290 | 1,403 | 1,537 | 1,697 | 1,894 |
| 11.00% | 1,168 | 1,263 | 1,374 | 1,506 | 1,664 |
| 11.50% | 1,062 | 1,143 | 1,237 | 1,346 | 1,476 |
| 12.00% | 970 | 1,040 | 1,120 | 1,212 | 1,319 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,170.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 994 · 1,361 · 1,839 |
| Draws below the CMP | 98% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.63 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.54 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,024 | 5,898 | 6,349 | 7,701 | 9,357 | 11,368 | 13,813 | 16,782 | 20,391 |
| growth % | 24.9 | 17.4 | 7.6 | 21.3 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| EBITDA | 734 | 1,012 | 1,227 | 1,383 | 1,684 | 2,046 | 2,486 | 3,021 | 3,670 |
| margin % | 14.6 | 17.2 | 19.3 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| less depreciation | (105) | (119) | (140) | (174) | (215) | (261) | (318) | (386) | (469) |
| EBIT | 629 | 894 | 1,087 | 1,209 | 1,469 | 1,785 | 2,169 | 2,635 | 3,201 |
| less tax on EBIT | (318) | (386) | (469) | (570) | (693) | (842) | |||
| NOPAT | 891 | 1,083 | 1,315 | 1,598 | 1,942 | 2,359 | |||
| add depreciation | 105 | 119 | 140 | 174 | 215 | 261 | 318 | 386 | 469 |
| less capex | (161) | (395) | (308) | (340) | (412) | (454) | (494) | (532) | (563) |
| less working-capital build | — | (161) | (195) | (237) | (288) | (350) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (1,082) | (864) | (1,047) | — | 726 | 928 | 1,184 | 1,508 | 1,916 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 689 | 794 | 912 | 1,046 | 1,198 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 5,314, dividends at 16.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,209 | 1,469 | 1,785 | 2,169 | 2,635 | 3,201 |
| Interest at 9.4% on debt | (499) | (499) | (499) | (499) | (499) | |
| Profit before tax | 970 | 1,285 | 1,669 | 2,135 | 2,702 | |
| Profit after tax | 562 | 715 | 947 | 1,230 | 1,574 | 1,991 |
| Dividends | (94) | (120) | (159) | (207) | (264) | (335) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 764 | 1,002 | 1,402 | 2,012 | 2,887 | 4,100 |
| Working capital | 749 | 910 | 1,105 | 1,342 | 1,630 | 1,980 |
| Net block and other assets | 9,339 | 9,536 | 9,728 | 9,905 | 10,051 | 10,144 |
| Debt | 5,314 | 5,314 | 5,314 | 5,314 | 5,314 | 5,314 |
| Equity | 3,575 | 4,170 | 4,958 | 5,981 | 7,291 | 8,947 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 769 | 1,014 | 1,311 | 1,672 | 2,110 | |
| Investing (capex) | (412) | (454) | (494) | (532) | (563) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (120) | (159) | (207) | (264) | (335) | |
| Net change in cash | 237 | 401 | 610 | 875 | 1,213 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 357 | 560 | 816 | 1,140 | 1,547 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21.5% | 18% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,374 | (36.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.