Models
KIRLOSKAR PNEUMATIC COM LKIRLPNUIndustrial Products
₹612per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹612implied FY26 P/E 15.1× · EV/EBITDA 11.3×
Against CMP ₹719.00−14.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies18.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹476₹885
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 867 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,002 |
| Enterprise value | 3,869 |
| less net debt | 111 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,980 |
| ÷ 6.50 crore shares | ₹612 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 632 | 678 | 733 | 801 | 885 |
| 10.50% | 584 | 622 | 667 | 722 | 788 |
| 11.00% | 543 | 575 | 612 | 657 | 710 |
| 11.50% | 507 | 534 | 566 | 603 | 646 |
| 12.00% | 476 | 499 | 526 | 557 | 593 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹719.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 505 · 606 · 734 |
| Draws below the CMP | 87% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.21 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,640 | 1,787 | 1,948 | 2,123 | 2,314 | 2,522 | 2,749 |
| growth % | — | 8.9 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| EBITDA | 288 | 343 | 374 | 408 | 444 | 484 | 528 |
| margin % | 17.6 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 |
| less depreciation | (29) | (32) | (35) | (38) | (42) | (45) | (49) |
| EBIT | 259 | 311 | 339 | 369 | 403 | 439 | 478 |
| less tax on EBIT | (77) | (84) | (91) | (99) | (108) | (118) | |
| NOPAT | 234 | 255 | 278 | 303 | 330 | 360 | |
| add depreciation | 29 | 32 | 35 | 38 | 42 | 45 | 49 |
| less capex | (78) | (66) | (72) | (70) | (68) | (64) | (59) |
| less working-capital build | — | (43) | (47) | (52) | (56) | (61) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 137 | — | 175 | 199 | 225 | 255 | 289 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 166 | 170 | 174 | 177 | 181 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 3, dividends at 25.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 311 | 339 | 369 | 403 | 439 | 478 |
| Interest at 17.6% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 338 | 369 | 402 | 438 | 478 | |
| Profit after tax | 256 | 255 | 278 | 303 | 330 | 360 |
| Dividends | (65) | (64) | (70) | (77) | (84) | (91) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 114 | 224 | 352 | 500 | 672 | 870 |
| Working capital | 482 | 526 | 573 | 625 | 681 | 742 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,161 | 1,198 | 1,230 | 1,257 | 1,275 | 1,285 |
| Debt | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Equity | 1,260 | 1,450 | 1,657 | 1,884 | 2,130 | 2,399 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 246 | 269 | 293 | 319 | 348 | |
| Investing (capex) | (72) | (70) | (68) | (64) | (59) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (64) | (70) | (77) | (84) | (91) | |
| Net change in cash | 110 | 128 | 148 | 172 | 198 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 174 | 198 | 225 | 255 | 289 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9% | 19.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹612 | (14.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.