Models
KOLTE PATIL DEV. LTD.KOLTEPATILRealty
₹128per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹128implied FY26 P/E 9.2× · EV/EBITDA (34.0)×
Against CMP ₹436.25−70.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹79₹228
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹292₹555
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 591 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,489 |
| Enterprise value | 2,080 |
| less net debt | (941) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,139 |
| ÷ 8.87 crore shares | ₹128 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 136 | 153 | 173 | 197 | 228 |
| 10.50% | 118 | 132 | 149 | 168 | 192 |
| 11.00% | 103 | 115 | 128 | 145 | 164 |
| 11.50% | 90 | 100 | 111 | 125 | 141 |
| 12.00% | 79 | 87 | 97 | 108 | 121 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹436.25; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 105 · 128 · 161 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −1.00 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,488 | 1,371 | 1,717 | 735 | 698 | 663 | 630 | 599 | 569 |
| growth % | 33.2 | (7.9) | 25.2 | (57.2) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 189 | 51 | 176 | (61) | (58) | (55) | (52) | (50) | (47) |
| margin % | 12.7 | 3.7 | 10.2 | (8.3) | (8.3) | (8.3) | (8.3) | (8.3) | (8.3) |
| less depreciation | (12) | (38) | (14) | (16) | (15) | (15) | (14) | (13) | (13) |
| EBIT | 178 | 13 | 162 | (77) | (73) | (70) | (66) | (63) | (60) |
| less tax on EBIT | 19 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | |||
| NOPAT | (58) | (55) | (52) | (50) | (47) | (45) | |||
| add depreciation | 12 | 38 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| less capex | (18) | (43) | (57) | (38) | (36) | (30) | (24) | (19) | (15) |
| less working-capital build | — | 234 | 222 | 211 | 201 | 191 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 174 | (154) | 224 | — | 159 | 155 | 151 | 147 | 143 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 151 | 133 | 116 | 102 | 90 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,142, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | (77) | (73) | (70) | (66) | (63) | (60) |
| Interest at 2.4% on debt | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | |
| Profit before tax | (101) | (97) | (94) | (90) | (87) | |
| Profit after tax | (39) | (75) | (73) | (70) | (68) | (65) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 202 | 340 | 474 | 605 | 732 | 854 |
| Working capital | 4,679 | 4,445 | 4,223 | 4,011 | 3,811 | 3,620 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,677 | 2,697 | 2,712 | 2,723 | 2,729 | 2,732 |
| Debt | 1,142 | 1,142 | 1,142 | 1,142 | 1,142 | 1,142 |
| Equity | 1,205 | 1,129 | 1,057 | 987 | 919 | 854 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 174 | 164 | 155 | 146 | 138 | |
| Investing (capex) | (36) | (30) | (24) | (19) | (15) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 138 | 134 | 131 | 127 | 123 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 138 | 134 | 131 | 127 | 123 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | -8.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹128 | (70.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.