Models
KOTHARI PETROCHEM LTDKOTHARIPETChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹170per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹170implied FY26 P/E 13.9× · EV/EBITDA 10.2×
Against CMP ₹138.01+23.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(3.3)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹132₹245
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹95₹165
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 245 |
| PV of terminal value | 746 |
| Enterprise value | 991 |
| less net debt | 10 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,001 |
| ÷ 5.88 crore shares | ₹170 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 176 | 188 | 203 | 222 | 245 |
| 10.50% | 162 | 173 | 185 | 200 | 218 |
| 11.00% | 151 | 160 | 170 | 182 | 197 |
| 11.50% | 141 | 149 | 157 | 167 | 179 |
| 12.00% | 132 | 139 | 146 | 155 | 165 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹138.01; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 144 · 169 · 201 |
| Draws below the CMP | 5% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.70 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.11 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 482 | 603 | 577 | 591 | 606 | 621 | 637 | 653 | 669 |
| growth % | 26.4 | 25.1 | (4.3) | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| EBITDA | 58 | 96 | 80 | 97 | 99 | 102 | 104 | 107 | 110 |
| margin % | 12.0 | 15.9 | 13.9 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 16.4 |
| less depreciation | (7) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (8) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) |
| EBIT | 51 | 88 | 72 | 88 | 91 | 93 | 96 | 98 | 100 |
| less tax on EBIT | (22) | (23) | (23) | (24) | (25) | (25) | |||
| NOPAT | 66 | 68 | 70 | 72 | 73 | 75 | |||
| add depreciation | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| less capex | (20) | (16) | (86) | (19) | (19) | (18) | (16) | (13) | (11) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 6 | 56 | (27) | — | 56 | 60 | 64 | 68 | 72 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 53 | 51 | 49 | 47 | 45 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 8.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 88 | 91 | 93 | 96 | 98 | 100 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 91 | 93 | 96 | 98 | 100 | |
| Profit after tax | 72 | 68 | 70 | 72 | 73 | 75 |
| Dividends | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 10 | 61 | 115 | 172 | 234 | 300 |
| Working capital | 54 | 55 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 61 |
| Net block and other assets | 378 | 389 | 397 | 404 | 408 | 410 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 372 | 435 | 499 | 565 | 632 | 701 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 75 | 77 | 79 | 81 | 83 | |
| Investing (capex) | (19) | (18) | (16) | (13) | (11) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Net change in cash | 50 | 54 | 58 | 62 | 66 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 56 | 60 | 64 | 68 | 72 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2.5% | 16.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹170 | 23.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.