Models
KOTYARK INDUSTRIES LTDKOTYARKPetroleum Products
₹13per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹13implied FY26 P/E 1.0× · EV/EBITDA 4.3×
Against CMP ₹32.50−61.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3164%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹9₹19
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹17₹46
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 73 |
| PV of terminal value | 131 |
| Enterprise value | 204 |
| less net debt | (63) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 141 |
| ÷ 11.31 crore shares | ₹13 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 13 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 19 |
| 10.50% | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
| 11.00% | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 11.50% | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 12.00% | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹32.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 4 · 12 · 20 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.20 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 288 | 315 | 345 | 378 | 413 | 453 | 496 |
| growth % | — | 9.3 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| EBITDA | — | 48 | 52 | 57 | 63 | 69 | 75 |
| margin % | — | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 |
| less depreciation | — | (13) | (14) | (15) | (17) | (19) | (20) |
| EBIT | — | 35 | 38 | 42 | 46 | 50 | 55 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | |
| NOPAT | 25 | 28 | 30 | 33 | 36 | 40 | |
| add depreciation | — | 13 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 20 |
| less capex | (14) | (3) | (3) | (7) | (12) | (18) | (24) |
| less working-capital build | — | (16) | (17) | (19) | (21) | (23) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 17 | — | 23 | 21 | 19 | 16 | 13 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 22 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 8 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 65, dividends at 1.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 35 | 38 | 42 | 46 | 50 | 55 |
| Interest at 12.8% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 30 | 34 | 38 | 42 | 47 | |
| Profit after tax | 19 | 22 | 24 | 27 | 30 | 34 |
| Dividends | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 18 | 32 | 45 | 54 | 60 |
| Working capital | 168 | 184 | 202 | 221 | 242 | 265 |
| Net block and other assets | 91 | 80 | 72 | 67 | 66 | 70 |
| Debt | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 |
| Equity | 182 | 204 | 227 | 254 | 284 | 317 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 20 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 31 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3) | (7) | (12) | (18) | (24) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | |
| Net change in cash | 16 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 6 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 17 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 7 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9.5% | 15.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹13 | (61.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.