Models
KOVAI MEDICAL CENTER & HOKOVAIHEALTHCARE SERVICES
₹4,926per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹4,926implied FY26 P/E 22.0× · EV/EBITDA 13.0×
Against CMP ₹6,205.00−20.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies21.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹3,652₹7,473
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹5,276₹6,444
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 971 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,725 |
| Enterprise value | 5,696 |
| less net debt | (306) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,390 |
| ÷ 1.09 crore shares | ₹4,926 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 5,107 | 5,537 | 6,053 | 6,684 | 7,473 |
| 10.50% | 4,658 | 5,015 | 5,438 | 5,945 | 6,565 |
| 11.00% | 4,274 | 4,575 | 4,926 | 5,341 | 5,839 |
| 11.50% | 3,941 | 4,198 | 4,493 | 4,838 | 5,246 |
| 12.00% | 3,652 | 3,872 | 4,123 | 4,414 | 4,753 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹6,205.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 3,734 · 4,888 · 6,348 |
| Draws below the CMP | 88% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.59 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.57 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.50 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,019 | 1,220 | 1,371 | 1,586 | 1,831 | 2,115 | 2,443 | 2,822 | 3,259 |
| growth % | 12.4 | 19.7 | 12.4 | 15.6 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| EBITDA | 267 | 342 | 386 | 439 | 507 | 586 | 677 | 782 | 903 |
| margin % | 26.2 | 28.0 | 28.1 | 27.7 | 27.7 | 27.7 | 27.7 | 27.7 | 27.7 |
| less depreciation | (89) | (92) | (98) | (109) | (126) | (146) | (169) | (195) | (225) |
| EBIT | 178 | 250 | 288 | 329 | 381 | 440 | 508 | 587 | 678 |
| less tax on EBIT | (82) | (95) | (110) | (127) | (146) | (169) | |||
| NOPAT | 247 | 286 | 330 | 382 | 441 | 509 | |||
| add depreciation | 89 | 92 | 98 | 109 | 126 | 146 | 169 | 195 | 225 |
| less capex | (127) | (138) | (353) | (252) | (291) | (296) | (295) | (287) | (270) |
| less working-capital build | — | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 136 | 206 | (0) | — | 116 | 174 | 248 | 340 | 455 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 110 | 149 | 191 | 236 | 284 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 369, dividends at 4.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 329 | 381 | 440 | 508 | 587 | 678 |
| Interest at 8.5% on debt | (31) | (31) | (31) | (31) | (31) | |
| Profit before tax | 350 | 409 | 477 | 556 | 647 | |
| Profit after tax | 244 | 263 | 307 | 358 | 417 | 486 |
| Dividends | (11) | (12) | (14) | (16) | (19) | (22) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 64 | 144 | 281 | 490 | 787 | 1,197 |
| Working capital | 34 | 39 | 45 | 52 | 60 | 69 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,968 | 2,133 | 2,283 | 2,410 | 2,503 | 2,548 |
| Debt | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 |
| Equity | 1,319 | 1,570 | 1,863 | 2,205 | 2,603 | 3,067 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 384 | 447 | 520 | 604 | 701 | |
| Investing (capex) | (291) | (296) | (295) | (287) | (270) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (12) | (14) | (16) | (19) | (22) | |
| Net change in cash | 81 | 137 | 208 | 298 | 410 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 93 | 151 | 224 | 317 | 431 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 15.5% | 27.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹4,926 | (20.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.