Models
KRISHANVEER FORGE LIMITEDBSE 513369Industrial Products
₹166per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹166implied FY26 P/E 15.9× · EV/EBITDA 12.1×
Against CMP ₹131.05+26.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(1.3)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹130₹238
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹106₹184
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 46 |
| PV of terminal value | 133 |
| Enterprise value | 179 |
| less net debt | 2 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 181 |
| ÷ 1.09 crore shares | ₹166 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 171 | 183 | 198 | 215 | 238 |
| 10.50% | 158 | 168 | 180 | 194 | 212 |
| 11.00% | 147 | 156 | 166 | 177 | 191 |
| 11.50% | 138 | 145 | 153 | 163 | 174 |
| 12.00% | 130 | 136 | 143 | 151 | 160 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹131.05; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 138 · 164 · 197 |
| Draws below the CMP | 5% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.24 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 81 | 84 | 83 | 89 | 96 | 104 | 112 | 121 | 131 |
| growth % | 20.4 | 3.3 | (1.0) | 7.9 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 4 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 22 |
| margin % | 4.9 | 8.2 | 10.1 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| EBIT | 2 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |||
| NOPAT | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| less capex | (1) | (1) | (1) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (3) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 7 | (0) | 4 | — | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at (2), dividends at 24% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 13 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 14 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | |
| Profit after tax | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| Dividends | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 9 | 17 | 26 | 35 | 45 |
| Working capital | 17 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 26 |
| Net block and other assets | 51 | 50 | 49 | 48 | 48 | 49 |
| Debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| Equity | 51 | 60 | 69 | 79 | 90 | 102 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | |
| Investing (capex) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (3) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 16.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹166 | 26.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.