KRISHNA DEF AND ALD IND L — valuation model

KRISHNA DEF AND ALD IND LKRISHNADEFAerospace & Defense

₹715per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹715implied FY26 P/E 20.0× · EV/EBITDA 20.5×

Against CMP ₹1,074.90−33.5%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies42.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹548₹1,049

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹665₹1,400

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	219
PV of terminal value	845
Enterprise value	1,064
less net debt	4
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	1,068
÷ 1.49 crore shares	₹715

79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	739	795	863	946	1,049
10.50%	680	727	782	848	930
11.00%	629	669	715	769	834
11.50%	586	619	658	703	757
12.00%	548	576	609	647	692

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,074.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	555 · 708 · 911
Draws below the CMP	98%
Rank correlation with revenue growth	+0.63
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.55
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.48

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	195	245	307	386	484	607	762
growth %	—	25.6	25.5	25.5	25.5	25.5	25.5
EBITDA	—	52	65	82	103	129	162
margin %	—	21.3	21.3	21.3	21.3	21.3	21.3
less depreciation	—	(4)	(5)	(7)	(8)	(10)	(13)
EBIT	—	48	60	76	95	119	149
less tax on EBIT		(12)	(15)	(19)	(24)	(30)	(37)
NOPAT		36	45	57	71	89	112
add depreciation	—	4	5	7	8	10	13
less capex	(13)	0	0	(2)	(5)	(9)	(16)
less working-capital build		—	(11)	(14)	(18)	(22)	(28)
Free cash flow to firm	(24)	—	39	47	57	68	81
Discount factor			0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value			37	40	44	47	51

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2, dividends at 1.8% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	48	60	76	95	119	149
Interest at 18.5% on debt		(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Profit before tax		60	75	94	119	149
Profit after tax	41	45	56	71	89	112
Dividends	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(2)	(2)
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	6	44	90	145	211	290
Working capital	44	56	70	88	110	138
Net block and other assets	167	162	157	154	153	155
Debt	2	2	2	2	2	2
Equity	194	238	293	363	450	560
Balance check	0	(0)	0	0	0	0
Cash flow
From operations		39	49	61	77	97
Investing (capex)		0	(2)	(5)	(9)	(16)
Financing (dividends)		(1)	(1)	(1)	(2)	(2)
Net change in cash		38	46	55	66	79
Free cash flow to equity		39	47	56	68	81

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	25.5%	21.3%	11.00%	5%	₹715	(33.5)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.