Models
KSE LTD.KSEFood Products
₹343per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹343implied FY26 P/E 1.5× · EV/EBITDA 10.0×
Against CMP ₹177.76+92.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹268₹491
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 292 |
| PV of terminal value | 803 |
| Enterprise value | 1,094 |
| less net debt | 3 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,097 |
| ÷ 3.20 crore shares | ₹343 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 354 | 379 | 409 | 446 | 491 |
| 10.50% | 328 | 348 | 373 | 402 | 438 |
| 11.00% | 305 | 323 | 343 | 367 | 396 |
| 11.50% | 286 | 300 | 318 | 338 | 361 |
| 12.00% | 268 | 281 | 296 | 313 | 332 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹177.76; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 290 · 341 · 403 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.70 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,610 | 1,683 | 1,650 | 1,680 | 1,714 | 1,748 | 1,783 | 1,819 | 1,855 |
| growth % | (3.6) | 4.6 | (2.0) | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| EBITDA | (2) | 28 | 123 | 109 | 111 | 114 | 116 | 118 | 121 |
| margin % | (0.1) | 1.7 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (5) | (6) | (8) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) |
| EBIT | (6) | 23 | 117 | 101 | 103 | 105 | 107 | 109 | 111 |
| less tax on EBIT | (27) | (27) | (28) | (28) | (29) | (29) | |||
| NOPAT | 75 | 76 | 77 | 79 | 80 | 82 | |||
| add depreciation | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| less capex | (6) | (8) | (14) | (8) | (9) | (9) | (10) | (10) | (11) |
| less working-capital build | — | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 28 | (23) | 128 | — | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 69 | 63 | 58 | 53 | 48 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 25, dividends at 37.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 101 | 103 | 105 | 107 | 109 | 111 |
| Interest at 10.6% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 100 | 102 | 104 | 107 | 109 | |
| Profit after tax | 84 | 74 | 75 | 77 | 78 | 80 |
| Dividends | (32) | (28) | (28) | (29) | (29) | (30) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 28 | 71 | 115 | 160 | 204 | 250 |
| Working capital | 134 | 137 | 140 | 143 | 146 | 148 |
| Net block and other assets | 253 | 253 | 253 | 254 | 255 | 257 |
| Debt | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Equity | 350 | 396 | 443 | 491 | 540 | 590 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 80 | 81 | 83 | 85 | 86 | |
| Investing (capex) | (9) | (9) | (10) | (10) | (11) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (28) | (28) | (29) | (29) | (30) | |
| Net change in cash | 43 | 44 | 44 | 45 | 45 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2% | 6.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹343 | 92.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.