Models
KSH INTERNATIONAL LIMITEDKSHINTLIndustrial Products
₹138per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹138implied FY26 P/E 6.7× · EV/EBITDA 6.2×
Against CMP ₹1,172.00−88.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3198%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹88₹238
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹330₹1,198
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 28 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,150 |
| Enterprise value | 1,178 |
| less net debt | (244) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 934 |
| ÷ 6.78 crore shares | ₹138 |
98% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 145 | 162 | 182 | 207 | 238 |
| 10.50% | 127 | 141 | 158 | 178 | 202 |
| 11.00% | 112 | 124 | 138 | 154 | 174 |
| 11.50% | 99 | 109 | 121 | 135 | 151 |
| 12.00% | 88 | 97 | 107 | 118 | 131 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,172.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 86 · 136 · 191 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.30 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,107 | 3,356 | 3,624 | 3,914 | 4,227 | 4,565 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 190 | 205 | 221 | 239 | 258 | 278 |
| margin % | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 |
| less depreciation | (22) | (23) | (25) | (27) | (30) | (32) |
| EBIT | 169 | 181 | 196 | 211 | 228 | 247 |
| less tax on EBIT | (41) | (44) | (48) | (52) | (56) | (60) |
| NOPAT | 127 | 137 | 148 | 160 | 172 | 186 |
| add depreciation | 22 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 30 | 32 |
| less capex | (163) | (174) | (149) | (118) | (82) | (38) |
| less working-capital build | — | (51) | (55) | (59) | (64) | (69) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (65) | (31) | 10 | 56 | 111 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | (62) | (26) | 7 | 39 | 69 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 316, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 169 | 181 | 196 | 211 | 228 | 247 |
| Interest at 13.9% on debt | (44) | (44) | (44) | (44) | (44) | |
| Profit before tax | 137 | 152 | 167 | 184 | 203 | |
| Profit after tax | 110 | 104 | 115 | 126 | 139 | 153 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 72 | (26) | (90) | (113) | (90) | (12) |
| Working capital | 634 | 685 | 740 | 799 | 863 | 932 |
| Net block and other assets | 616 | 767 | 891 | 982 | 1,034 | 1,040 |
| Debt | 316 | 316 | 316 | 316 | 316 | 316 |
| Equity | 808 | 912 | 1,026 | 1,153 | 1,292 | 1,445 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 76 | 85 | 95 | 105 | 116 | |
| Investing (capex) | (174) | (149) | (118) | (82) | (38) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (98) | (64) | (24) | 23 | 78 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (98) | (64) | (24) | 23 | 78 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 6.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹138 | (88.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.