₹379per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹379implied FY26 P/E 24.2× · EV/EBITDA 18.5×
Against CMP ₹260.00+45.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies6.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹291₹554
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹246₹354
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 193 |
| PV of terminal value | 701 |
| Enterprise value | 894 |
| less net debt | 5 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 899 |
| ÷ 2.37 crore shares | ₹379 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 392 | 421 | 456 | 500 | 554 |
| 10.50% | 361 | 385 | 414 | 449 | 491 |
| 11.00% | 334 | 355 | 379 | 407 | 441 |
| 11.50% | 311 | 329 | 349 | 373 | 401 |
| 12.00% | 291 | 307 | 324 | 344 | 367 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹260.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 302 · 377 · 471 |
| Draws below the CMP | 1% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.61 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.54 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.52 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 78 | 109 | 137 | 163 | 193 | 228 | 271 | 321 | 380 |
| growth % | — | 38.7 | 26.5 | 18.4 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
| EBITDA | 33 | 46 | 48 | 48 | 57 | 68 | 80 | 95 | 113 |
| margin % | 42.0 | 42.7 | 34.8 | 29.7 | 29.7 | 29.7 | 29.7 | 29.7 | 29.7 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (8) |
| EBIT | 32 | 46 | 46 | 45 | 53 | 63 | 75 | 89 | 105 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (13) | (15) | (18) | (21) | (25) | |||
| NOPAT | 34 | 41 | 48 | 57 | 68 | 80 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| less capex | (1) | (2) | (7) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (5) | (7) | (9) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (11) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 20 | 31 | 27 | — | 37 | 43 | 50 | 58 | 68 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 35 | 37 | 38 | 40 | 42 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2, dividends at 76% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 45 | 53 | 63 | 75 | 89 | 105 |
| Interest at 16.3% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 53 | 63 | 75 | 89 | 105 | |
| Profit after tax | 34 | 40 | 48 | 57 | 67 | 80 |
| Dividends | (26) | (31) | (36) | (43) | (51) | (61) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 7 | 13 | 19 | 26 | 32 | 39 |
| Working capital | 30 | 36 | 43 | 51 | 60 | 71 |
| Net block and other assets | 25 | 23 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| Debt | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Equity | 29 | 39 | 51 | 64 | 80 | 100 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 39 | 46 | 54 | 64 | 76 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2) | (3) | (5) | (7) | (9) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (31) | (36) | (43) | (51) | (61) | |
| Net change in cash | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 37 | 43 | 50 | 58 | 67 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 18.5% | 29.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹379 | 45.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.