Models
KUANTUM PAPERS LIMITEDKUANTUMPaper Forest & Jute Products
₹-61per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(61)implied FY26 P/E (14.9)× · EV/EBITDA 1.7×
Against CMP ₹76.99−179.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31204%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(80)₹(23)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹65₹121
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (294) |
| PV of terminal value | 577 |
| Enterprise value | 283 |
| less net debt | (819) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (536) |
| ÷ 8.73 crore shares | ₹(61) |
204% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (59) | (53) | (45) | (35) | (23) |
| 10.50% | (66) | (60) | (54) | (46) | (37) |
| 11.00% | (71) | (67) | (61) | (55) | (47) |
| 11.50% | (76) | (72) | (68) | (62) | (56) |
| 12.00% | (80) | (77) | (73) | (69) | (63) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹76.99; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (81) · (61) · (39) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,310 | 1,211 | 1,107 | 1,093 | 1,077 | 1,061 | 1,045 | 1,029 | 1,014 |
| growth % | 57.7 | (7.5) | (8.6) | (1.3) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) |
| EBITDA | 316 | 333 | 243 | 162 | 159 | 157 | 155 | 152 | 150 |
| margin % | 24.1 | 27.5 | 21.9 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 |
| less depreciation | (45) | (48) | (54) | (65) | (65) | (64) | (63) | (62) | (61) |
| EBIT | 270 | 285 | 189 | 97 | 95 | 93 | 92 | 91 | 89 |
| less tax on EBIT | (25) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (23) | (23) | |||
| NOPAT | 72 | 70 | 69 | 68 | 67 | 66 | |||
| add depreciation | 45 | 48 | 54 | 65 | 65 | 64 | 63 | 62 | 61 |
| less capex | (65) | (176) | (313) | (327) | (322) | (257) | (194) | (132) | (73) |
| less working-capital build | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 310 | 122 | (136) | — | (185) | (122) | (61) | (2) | 56 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (176) | (105) | (47) | (1) | 35 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 860, dividends at 62.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 97 | 95 | 93 | 92 | 91 | 89 |
| Interest at 6.1% on debt | (52) | (52) | (52) | (52) | (52) | |
| Profit before tax | 42 | 41 | 39 | 38 | 37 | |
| Profit after tax | 42 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 28 | 27 |
| Dividends | (26) | (19) | (19) | (18) | (18) | (17) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 41 | (203) | (383) | (501) | (560) | (560) |
| Working capital | 112 | 110 | 108 | 107 | 105 | 104 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,246 | 2,504 | 2,697 | 2,828 | 2,899 | 2,911 |
| Debt | 860 | 860 | 860 | 860 | 860 | 860 |
| Equity | 1,228 | 1,240 | 1,252 | 1,263 | 1,274 | 1,284 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 98 | 96 | 94 | 92 | 90 | |
| Investing (capex) | (322) | (257) | (194) | (132) | (73) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (19) | (19) | (18) | (18) | (17) | |
| Net change in cash | (244) | (180) | (118) | (58) | (0) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (224) | (161) | (100) | (41) | 17 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -1.5% | 14.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(61) | (179.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.