Models
LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD.LTConstruction
₹2,020per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,020implied FY26 P/E 16.8× · EV/EBITDA 14.0×
Against CMP ₹3,930.70−48.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies25.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,383₹3,292
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3,288₹4,440
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 88,278 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,95,955 |
| Enterprise value | 3,84,234 |
| less net debt | (1,06,292) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,77,942 |
| ÷ 137.58 crore shares | ₹2,020 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,113 | 2,328 | 2,585 | 2,899 | 3,292 |
| 10.50% | 1,888 | 2,066 | 2,277 | 2,529 | 2,838 |
| 11.00% | 1,695 | 1,845 | 2,020 | 2,227 | 2,475 |
| 11.50% | 1,529 | 1,656 | 1,804 | 1,975 | 2,178 |
| 12.00% | 1,383 | 1,493 | 1,618 | 1,763 | 1,931 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,930.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,482 · 2,004 · 2,646 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.57 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.54 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,83,341 | 2,21,113 | 2,55,734 | 2,85,874 | 3,20,179 | 3,58,601 | 4,01,633 | 4,49,829 | 5,03,808 |
| growth % | 17.1 | 20.6 | 15.7 | 11.8 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| EBITDA | 20,889 | 23,587 | — | 27,429 | 30,737 | 34,426 | 38,557 | 43,184 | 48,366 |
| margin % | 11.4 | 10.7 | — | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 |
| less depreciation | (3,502) | (3,682) | — | (4,365) | (4,803) | (5,379) | (6,024) | (6,747) | (7,557) |
| EBIT | 17,387 | 19,905 | — | 23,064 | 25,935 | 29,047 | 32,532 | 36,436 | 40,808 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6,043) | (6,795) | (7,610) | (8,523) | (9,546) | (10,692) | |||
| NOPAT | 17,021 | 19,140 | 21,436 | 24,009 | 26,890 | 30,117 | |||
| add depreciation | 3,502 | 3,682 | — | 4,365 | 4,803 | 5,379 | 6,024 | 6,747 | 7,557 |
| less capex | (4,144) | (4,517) | (4,419) | (4,809) | (5,443) | (6,186) | (7,029) | (7,984) | (9,069) |
| less working-capital build | — | (69) | (77) | (86) | (96) | (108) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 18,633 | 13,750 | 4,742 | — | 18,431 | 20,553 | 22,919 | 25,556 | 28,497 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 17,494 | 17,575 | 17,656 | 17,737 | 17,818 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,21,683, dividends at 29.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 23,064 | 25,935 | 29,047 | 32,532 | 36,436 | 40,808 |
| Interest at 2.3% on debt | (2,799) | (2,799) | (2,799) | (2,799) | (2,799) | |
| Profit before tax | 23,136 | 26,248 | 29,734 | 33,637 | 38,010 | |
| Profit after tax | 16,084 | 17,074 | 19,371 | 21,943 | 24,824 | 28,051 |
| Dividends | (4,676) | (4,969) | (5,637) | (6,386) | (7,224) | (8,163) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 15,391 | 26,788 | 39,638 | 54,106 | 70,373 | 88,642 |
| Working capital | 548 | 617 | 694 | 780 | 876 | 984 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,36,610 | 4,37,251 | 4,38,058 | 4,39,062 | 4,40,299 | 4,41,810 |
| Debt | 1,21,683 | 1,21,683 | 1,21,683 | 1,21,683 | 1,21,683 | 1,21,683 |
| Equity | 1,28,530 | 1,40,636 | 1,54,370 | 1,69,928 | 1,87,528 | 2,07,417 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 21,808 | 24,673 | 27,882 | 31,475 | 35,500 | |
| Investing (capex) | (5,443) | (6,186) | (7,029) | (7,984) | (9,069) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4,969) | (5,637) | (6,386) | (7,224) | (8,163) | |
| Net change in cash | 11,397 | 12,850 | 14,468 | 16,267 | 18,269 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 16,365 | 18,487 | 20,853 | 23,491 | 26,432 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12% | 9.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,020 | (48.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.