₹203per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹203implied FY26 P/E 21.5× · EV/EBITDA 17.1×
Against CMP ₹253.40−19.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies35.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹158₹294
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹248₹518
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 859 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,186 |
| Enterprise value | 4,045 |
| less net debt | 158 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,203 |
| ÷ 20.69 crore shares | ₹203 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 210 | 225 | 243 | 266 | 294 |
| 10.50% | 194 | 206 | 221 | 240 | 262 |
| 11.00% | 180 | 191 | 203 | 218 | 236 |
| 11.50% | 168 | 177 | 188 | 200 | 214 |
| 12.00% | 158 | 165 | 174 | 185 | 197 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹253.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 157 · 201 · 258 |
| Draws below the CMP | 88% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.53 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.46 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 539 | 641 | 848 | 1,060 | 1,325 | 1,657 | 2,071 | 2,588 | 3,235 |
| growth % | 32.1 | 18.9 | 32.3 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| EBITDA | 145 | 136 | 196 | 236 | 296 | 369 | 462 | 577 | 722 |
| margin % | 26.9 | 21.2 | 23.1 | 22.3 | 22.3 | 22.3 | 22.3 | 22.3 | 22.3 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (10) | (29) | (41) | (52) | (65) | (81) | (101) | (126) |
| EBIT | 136 | 126 | 166 | 195 | 244 | 305 | 381 | 476 | 595 |
| less tax on EBIT | (44) | (55) | (69) | (86) | (108) | (135) | |||
| NOPAT | 151 | 189 | 236 | 295 | 369 | 461 | |||
| add depreciation | 9 | 10 | 29 | 41 | 52 | 65 | 81 | 101 | 126 |
| less capex | (3) | (5) | (16) | (22) | (28) | (45) | (70) | (104) | (151) |
| less working-capital build | — | (53) | (66) | (82) | (103) | (129) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 94 | 111 | 114 | — | 160 | 189 | 223 | 262 | 307 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 152 | 162 | 172 | 182 | 192 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 195 | 244 | 305 | 381 | 476 | 595 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 244 | 305 | 381 | 476 | 595 | |
| Profit after tax | 198 | 189 | 236 | 295 | 369 | 461 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 159 | 318 | 507 | 731 | 993 | 1,299 |
| Working capital | 211 | 264 | 330 | 413 | 516 | 644 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,724 | 1,701 | 1,681 | 1,671 | 1,674 | 1,700 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,784 | 1,973 | 2,209 | 2,503 | 2,872 | 3,333 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 188 | 235 | 293 | 367 | 458 | |
| Investing (capex) | (28) | (45) | (70) | (104) | (151) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 160 | 189 | 223 | 262 | 307 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 160 | 189 | 223 | 262 | 307 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 25% | 22.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹203 | (19.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.