₹119per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹119implied FY26 P/E 5.9× · EV/EBITDA 4.9×
Against CMP ₹1,969.00−93.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3195%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹75₹209
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹823₹1,955
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 462 |
| PV of terminal value | 8,275 |
| Enterprise value | 8,736 |
| less net debt | (2,285) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,451 |
| ÷ 54.03 crore shares | ₹119 |
95% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 125 | 141 | 159 | 181 | 209 |
| 10.50% | 110 | 122 | 137 | 155 | 177 |
| 11.00% | 96 | 107 | 119 | 134 | 152 |
| 11.50% | 85 | 94 | 104 | 116 | 131 |
| 12.00% | 75 | 82 | 91 | 102 | 114 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,969.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 5 · 117 · 213 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.41 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.21 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,041 | 5,041 | 5,554 | 6,813 | 8,346 | 10,224 | 12,524 | 15,342 | 18,794 |
| growth % | 22.4 | (16.6) | 10.2 | 22.7 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,592 | 777 | 1,055 | 1,778 | 2,178 | 2,668 | 3,269 | 4,004 | 4,905 |
| margin % | 26.4 | 15.4 | 19.0 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 |
| less depreciation | (324) | (385) | (430) | (480) | (584) | (716) | (877) | (1,074) | (1,316) |
| EBIT | 1,268 | 393 | 625 | 1,298 | 1,594 | 1,953 | 2,392 | 2,930 | 3,590 |
| less tax on EBIT | (321) | (394) | (482) | (591) | (724) | (887) | |||
| NOPAT | 977 | 1,200 | 1,470 | 1,801 | 2,207 | 2,703 | |||
| add depreciation | 324 | 385 | 430 | 480 | 584 | 716 | 877 | 1,074 | 1,316 |
| less capex | (990) | (678) | (641) | (1,070) | (1,310) | (1,419) | (1,509) | (1,569) | (1,579) |
| less working-capital build | — | (730) | (894) | (1,095) | (1,341) | (1,643) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 4 | (13) | (39) | — | (255) | (126) | 74 | 370 | 797 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (242) | (108) | 57 | 257 | 498 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,397, dividends at 9.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,298 | 1,594 | 1,953 | 2,392 | 2,930 | 3,590 |
| Interest at 6.7% on debt | (161) | (161) | (161) | (161) | (161) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,433 | 1,792 | 2,231 | 2,770 | 3,429 | |
| Profit after tax | 889 | 1,079 | 1,349 | 1,680 | 2,086 | 2,582 |
| Dividends | (86) | (105) | (131) | (163) | (202) | (250) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 113 | (368) | (747) | (957) | (910) | (484) |
| Working capital | 3,246 | 3,976 | 4,869 | 5,964 | 7,306 | 8,949 |
| Net block and other assets | 7,153 | 7,879 | 8,582 | 9,214 | 9,709 | 9,972 |
| Debt | 2,397 | 2,397 | 2,397 | 2,397 | 2,397 | 2,397 |
| Equity | 5,431 | 6,406 | 7,625 | 9,142 | 11,025 | 13,357 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 934 | 1,171 | 1,462 | 1,818 | 2,254 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,310) | (1,419) | (1,509) | (1,569) | (1,579) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (105) | (131) | (163) | (202) | (250) | |
| Net change in cash | (481) | (378) | (210) | 47 | 425 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (376) | (247) | (47) | 249 | 676 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 22.5% | 26.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹119 | (93.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.