Models
LEELA PALACES HOTEL LTDTHELEELALeisure Services
₹233per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹233implied FY26 P/E 12.9× · EV/EBITDA 12.6×
Against CMP ₹536.90−56.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies26.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹167₹366
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹385₹583
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,745 |
| PV of terminal value | 7,509 |
| Enterprise value | 9,254 |
| less net debt | (1,457) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 7,797 |
| ÷ 33.40 crore shares | ₹233 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 243 | 265 | 292 | 325 | 366 |
| 10.50% | 220 | 238 | 260 | 287 | 319 |
| 11.00% | 200 | 215 | 233 | 255 | 281 |
| 11.50% | 182 | 196 | 211 | 229 | 250 |
| 12.00% | 167 | 179 | 192 | 207 | 224 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹536.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 181 · 232 · 294 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.62 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.40 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,527 | 1,649 | 1,781 | 1,924 | 2,078 | 2,244 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 736 | 795 | 859 | 927 | 1,002 | 1,082 |
| margin % | 48.2 | 48.2 | 48.2 | 48.2 | 48.2 | 48.2 |
| less depreciation | (113) | (122) | (132) | (142) | (154) | (166) |
| EBIT | 624 | 673 | 727 | 785 | 848 | 916 |
| less tax on EBIT | (109) | (117) | (126) | (137) | (148) | (159) |
| NOPAT | 515 | 556 | 600 | 648 | 700 | 756 |
| add depreciation | 113 | 122 | 132 | 142 | 154 | 166 |
| less capex | (394) | (426) | (384) | (334) | (272) | (199) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 252 | 348 | 457 | 582 | 723 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 240 | 298 | 352 | 404 | 452 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,557, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 624 | 673 | 727 | 785 | 848 | 916 |
| Interest at 13.1% on debt | (204) | (204) | (204) | (204) | (204) | |
| Profit before tax | 469 | 523 | 581 | 644 | 712 | |
| Profit after tax | 33 | 387 | 432 | 480 | 532 | 588 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 100 | 184 | 363 | 652 | 1,065 | 1,620 |
| Working capital | (42) | (42) | (42) | (42) | (42) | (42) |
| Net block and other assets | 8,866 | 9,170 | 9,422 | 9,613 | 9,732 | 9,765 |
| Debt | 1,557 | 1,557 | 1,557 | 1,557 | 1,557 | 1,557 |
| Equity | 6,453 | 6,840 | 7,272 | 7,752 | 8,284 | 8,871 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 509 | 564 | 622 | 686 | 754 | |
| Investing (capex) | (426) | (384) | (334) | (272) | (199) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 84 | 179 | 289 | 413 | 555 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 84 | 179 | 289 | 413 | 555 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 48.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹233 | (56.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.