Models
LEMON TREE HOTELS LTDLEMONTREELeisure Services
₹93per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹93implied FY26 P/E 31.3× · EV/EBITDA 14.2×
Against CMP ₹105.00−11.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies15.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹66₹146
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹100₹180
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,168 |
| PV of terminal value | 7,142 |
| Enterprise value | 9,310 |
| less net debt | (1,946) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 7,364 |
| ÷ 79.18 crore shares | ₹93 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 97 | 106 | 117 | 130 | 146 |
| 10.50% | 87 | 95 | 104 | 114 | 127 |
| 11.00% | 79 | 86 | 93 | 102 | 112 |
| 11.50% | 72 | 78 | 84 | 91 | 100 |
| 12.00% | 66 | 71 | 76 | 82 | 89 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹105.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 70 · 92 · 120 |
| Draws below the CMP | 73% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.53 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 875 | 1,071 | 1,286 | 1,445 | 1,625 | 1,828 | 2,057 | 2,314 | 2,603 |
| growth % | 117.5 | 22.4 | 20.1 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| EBITDA | 448 | 523 | 634 | 658 | 739 | 832 | 936 | 1,053 | 1,184 |
| margin % | 51.2 | 48.8 | 49.3 | 45.5 | 45.5 | 45.5 | 45.5 | 45.5 | 45.5 |
| less depreciation | (97) | (112) | (139) | (139) | (156) | (176) | (197) | (222) | (250) |
| EBIT | 351 | 411 | 495 | 519 | 583 | 656 | 738 | 831 | 934 |
| less tax on EBIT | (102) | (115) | (129) | (145) | (164) | (184) | |||
| NOPAT | 417 | 468 | 527 | 593 | 667 | 750 | |||
| add depreciation | 97 | 112 | 139 | 139 | 156 | 176 | 197 | 222 | 250 |
| less capex | (162) | (331) | (96) | (138) | (156) | (184) | (217) | (255) | (300) |
| less working-capital build | — | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (13) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 223 | 134 | 446 | — | 461 | 509 | 563 | 622 | 688 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 437 | 436 | 434 | 432 | 430 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,004, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 519 | 583 | 656 | 738 | 831 | 934 |
| Interest at 8.1% on debt | (162) | (162) | (162) | (162) | (162) | |
| Profit before tax | 421 | 494 | 576 | 668 | 772 | |
| Profit after tax | 227 | 338 | 397 | 463 | 537 | 620 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 58 | 388 | 767 | 1,200 | 1,692 | 2,250 |
| Working capital | 63 | 71 | 80 | 90 | 101 | 114 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,164 | 4,164 | 4,172 | 4,192 | 4,226 | 4,275 |
| Debt | 2,004 | 2,004 | 2,004 | 2,004 | 2,004 | 2,004 |
| Equity | 2,079 | 2,417 | 2,814 | 3,277 | 3,813 | 4,433 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 486 | 563 | 650 | 748 | 857 | |
| Investing (capex) | (156) | (184) | (217) | (255) | (300) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 330 | 379 | 433 | 492 | 557 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 330 | 379 | 433 | 492 | 557 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12.5% | 45.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹93 | (11.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.