₹405per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹405implied FY26 P/E 15.1× · EV/EBITDA 9.6×
Against CMP ₹1,638.50−75.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹323₹569
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,304₹1,755
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 4,217 |
| PV of terminal value | 18,807 |
| Enterprise value | 23,024 |
| less net debt | 4,476 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 27,500 |
| ÷ 67.88 crore shares | ₹405 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 417 | 444 | 478 | 518 | 569 |
| 10.50% | 388 | 411 | 438 | 471 | 510 |
| 11.00% | 363 | 383 | 405 | 432 | 464 |
| 11.50% | 342 | 358 | 377 | 399 | 426 |
| 12.00% | 323 | 337 | 354 | 372 | 394 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,638.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 338 · 401 · 481 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.23 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 24,605 | 26,573 | 28,699 | 30,995 | 33,475 | 36,153 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 2,408 | 2,604 | 2,813 | 3,038 | 3,281 | 3,543 |
| margin % | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| less depreciation | (396) | (425) | (459) | (496) | (536) | (578) |
| EBIT | 2,012 | 2,179 | 2,353 | 2,542 | 2,745 | 2,965 |
| less tax on EBIT | (537) | (582) | (628) | (679) | (733) | (792) |
| NOPAT | 1,475 | 1,597 | 1,725 | 1,863 | 2,012 | 2,173 |
| add depreciation | 396 | 425 | 459 | 496 | 536 | 578 |
| less capex | (1,172) | (1,276) | (1,171) | (1,041) | (884) | (694) |
| less working-capital build | — | (181) | (196) | (211) | (228) | (246) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 566 | 818 | 1,106 | 1,436 | 1,811 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 537 | 699 | 852 | 996 | 1,132 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,012 | 2,179 | 2,353 | 2,542 | 2,745 | 2,965 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 2,179 | 2,353 | 2,542 | 2,745 | 2,965 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,685 | 1,597 | 1,725 | 1,863 | 2,012 | 2,173 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4,476 | 5,042 | 5,860 | 6,966 | 8,402 | 10,213 |
| Working capital | 2,272 | 2,453 | 2,648 | 2,860 | 3,088 | 3,334 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,888 | 7,739 | 8,450 | 8,996 | 9,344 | 9,460 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 7,666 | 9,263 | 10,988 | 12,851 | 14,863 | 17,036 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,841 | 1,989 | 2,148 | 2,320 | 2,505 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,276) | (1,171) | (1,041) | (884) | (694) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 566 | 818 | 1,106 | 1,436 | 1,811 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 566 | 818 | 1,106 | 1,436 | 1,811 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 9.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹405 | (75.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.