Models
LIKHITHA INFRASTRUC LTDLIKHITHA
₹157per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹157implied FY26 P/E 18.9× · EV/EBITDA 9.7×
Against CMP ₹217.00−27.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹128₹214
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹131₹272
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 165 |
| PV of terminal value | 383 |
| Enterprise value | 548 |
| less net debt | 70 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 618 |
| ÷ 3.95 crore shares | ₹157 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 161 | 171 | 182 | 197 | 214 |
| 10.50% | 151 | 159 | 168 | 180 | 194 |
| 11.00% | 142 | 149 | 157 | 166 | 177 |
| 11.50% | 134 | 140 | 147 | 155 | 164 |
| 12.00% | 128 | 133 | 138 | 145 | 153 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹217.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 139 · 157 · 179 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.80 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 365 | 422 | 520 | 457 | 434 | 412 | 392 | 372 | 353 |
| growth % | 41.9 | 15.5 | 23.3 | (12.2) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 83 | 94 | 96 | 57 | 54 | 51 | 49 | 46 | 44 |
| margin % | 22.8 | 22.2 | 18.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (8) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (6) | (6) | (6) |
| EBIT | 78 | 86 | 90 | 50 | 47 | 45 | 42 | 40 | 38 |
| less tax on EBIT | (13) | (13) | (12) | (11) | (11) | (10) | |||
| NOPAT | 36 | 34 | 32 | 31 | 29 | 28 | |||
| add depreciation | 5 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| less capex | (9) | (14) | (3) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) |
| less working-capital build | — | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 22 | 7 | (3) | — | 47 | 44 | 42 | 39 | 37 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 45 | 38 | 32 | 27 | 23 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 50 | 47 | 45 | 42 | 40 | 38 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 47 | 45 | 42 | 40 | 38 | |
| Profit after tax | 39 | 34 | 32 | 31 | 29 | 28 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 70 | 117 | 162 | 203 | 243 | 280 |
| Working capital | 250 | 237 | 226 | 214 | 204 | 193 |
| Net block and other assets | 143 | 142 | 142 | 143 | 143 | 145 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 412 | 446 | 478 | 509 | 538 | 566 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 54 | 51 | 48 | 46 | 44 | |
| Investing (capex) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 47 | 44 | 42 | 39 | 37 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 47 | 44 | 42 | 39 | 37 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 12.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹157 | (27.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.