LINCOLN PHARMA LTD — valuation model

LINCOLN PHARMA LTDLINCOLNPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

₹485per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹485implied FY26 P/E 10.1× · EV/EBITDA 9.8×

Against CMP ₹621.00−22.0%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹376₹702

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹440₹770

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	217
PV of terminal value	736
Enterprise value	953
less net debt	17
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	970
÷ 2.00 crore shares	₹485

77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	500	537	581	635	702
10.50%	462	492	528	571	624
11.00%	429	455	485	520	562
11.50%	401	422	447	477	512
12.00%	376	394	416	440	469

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹621.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	396 · 480 · 586
Draws below the CMP	96%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.76
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.60
Rank correlation with revenue growth	+0.11

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	510	581	623	671	721	775	834	896	963
growth %	8.1	13.8	7.4	7.7	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5
EBITDA	89	100	101	98	105	113	122	131	141
margin %	17.5	17.2	16.3	14.6	14.6	14.6	14.6	14.6	14.6
less depreciation	(9)	(11)	(13)	(14)	(16)	(17)	(18)	(20)	(21)
EBIT	80	89	89	83	89	96	103	111	119
less tax on EBIT				(20)	(21)	(23)	(25)	(27)	(29)
NOPAT				63	68	73	79	84	91
add depreciation	9	11	13	14	16	17	18	20	21
less capex	(14)	(39)	(19)	(25)	(27)	(27)	(27)	(26)	(25)
less working-capital build				—	(12)	(13)	(14)	(15)	(16)
Free cash flow to firm	25	24	74	—	45	50	57	63	71
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					42	43	44	44	44

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	83	89	96	103	111	119
Interest at 8% on debt		(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Profit before tax		89	96	103	111	119
Profit after tax	0	68	73	78	84	91
Dividends	(4)	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	22	66	116	172	235	306
Working capital	157	168	181	195	209	225
Net block and other assets	712	724	734	742	749	753
Debt	4	4	4	4	4	4
Equity	758	825	898	976	1,061	1,151
Balance check	0	0	(0)	(0)	0	0
Cash flow
From operations		72	77	83	89	96
Investing (capex)		(27)	(27)	(27)	(26)	(25)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		44	50	56	63	71
Free cash flow to equity		44	50	56	63	71

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	7.5%	14.6%	11.00%	5%	₹485	(22.0)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.