Models
LLOYDS METALS N ENERGY LLLOYDSMEMinerals & Mining
₹2,086per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,086implied FY26 P/E 23.6× · EV/EBITDA 22.1×
Against CMP ₹1,802.00+15.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies26.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31102%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,369₹3,527
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,043₹2,125
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (2,690) |
| PV of terminal value | 1,38,357 |
| Enterprise value | 1,35,667 |
| less net debt | (18,259) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,17,408 |
| ÷ 56.29 crore shares | ₹2,086 |
102% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,180 | 2,425 | 2,719 | 3,078 | 3,527 |
| 10.50% | 1,929 | 2,132 | 2,373 | 2,662 | 3,014 |
| 11.00% | 1,715 | 1,886 | 2,086 | 2,322 | 2,605 |
| 11.50% | 1,530 | 1,676 | 1,844 | 2,040 | 2,272 |
| 12.00% | 1,369 | 1,494 | 1,637 | 1,803 | 1,996 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,802.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,336 · 2,062 · 3,037 |
| Draws below the CMP | 34% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.40 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,392 | 6,522 | 6,721 | 17,113 | 22,246 | 28,920 | 37,597 | 48,875 | 63,538 |
| growth % | 386.4 | 92.2 | 3.1 | 154.6 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | (384) | 1,728 | 1,953 | 6,140 | 7,986 | 10,382 | 13,497 | 17,546 | 22,810 |
| margin % | (11.3) | 26.5 | 29.1 | 35.9 | 35.9 | 35.9 | 35.9 | 35.9 | 35.9 |
| less depreciation | (23) | (49) | (81) | (607) | (779) | (1,012) | (1,316) | (1,711) | (2,224) |
| EBIT | (407) | 1,679 | 1,872 | 5,533 | 7,208 | 9,370 | 12,181 | 15,836 | 20,586 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,494) | (1,946) | (2,530) | (3,289) | (4,276) | (5,558) | |||
| NOPAT | 4,039 | 5,262 | 6,840 | 8,892 | 11,560 | 15,028 | |||
| add depreciation | 23 | 49 | 81 | 607 | 779 | 1,012 | 1,316 | 1,711 | 2,224 |
| less capex | (100) | (1,721) | (3,696) | (9,962) | (12,947) | (12,927) | (11,730) | (8,651) | (2,669) |
| less working-capital build | — | (442) | (574) | (746) | (970) | (1,261) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (616) | (20) | (2,490) | — | (7,349) | (5,649) | (2,268) | 3,650 | 13,322 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (6,975) | (4,830) | (1,747) | 2,533 | 8,330 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 20,380, dividends at 1.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 5,533 | 7,208 | 9,370 | 12,181 | 15,836 | 20,586 |
| Interest at 4.8% on debt | (978) | (978) | (978) | (978) | (978) | |
| Profit before tax | 6,230 | 8,392 | 11,203 | 14,857 | 19,608 | |
| Profit after tax | 3,681 | 4,548 | 6,126 | 8,178 | 10,846 | 14,314 |
| Dividends | (52) | (64) | (86) | (114) | (152) | (200) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2,122 | (6,005) | (12,453) | (15,550) | (12,766) | (359) |
| Working capital | 1,477 | 1,918 | 2,492 | 3,238 | 4,208 | 5,469 |
| Net block and other assets | 38,051 | 50,220 | 62,135 | 72,549 | 79,490 | 79,935 |
| Debt | 20,380 | 20,380 | 20,380 | 20,380 | 20,380 | 20,380 |
| Equity | 14,266 | 18,750 | 24,790 | 32,854 | 43,548 | 57,662 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 4,885 | 6,564 | 8,748 | 11,587 | 15,277 | |
| Investing (capex) | (12,947) | (12,927) | (11,730) | (8,651) | (2,669) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (64) | (86) | (114) | (152) | (200) | |
| Net change in cash | (8,126) | (6,449) | (3,097) | 2,784 | 12,408 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (8,063) | (6,363) | (2,982) | 2,936 | 12,608 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 35.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,086 | 15.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.