Models
LORDS CHLORO ALKALI LTDLORDSCHLOChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹86per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹86implied FY26 P/E 7.1× · EV/EBITDA 6.1×
Against CMP ₹139.50−38.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31111%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹43₹174
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹108₹233
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (41) |
| PV of terminal value | 429 |
| Enterprise value | 388 |
| less net debt | (140) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 248 |
| ÷ 2.87 crore shares | ₹86 |
111% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 92 | 107 | 125 | 147 | 174 |
| 10.50% | 77 | 89 | 104 | 121 | 143 |
| 11.00% | 64 | 74 | 86 | 101 | 118 |
| 11.50% | 53 | 61 | 72 | 84 | 98 |
| 12.00% | 43 | 51 | 59 | 69 | 81 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹139.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (6) · 83 · 165 |
| Draws below the CMP | 81% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.92 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.26 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.24 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 295 | 221 | 270 | 390 | 507 | 659 | 857 | 1,114 | 1,449 |
| growth % | 22.9 | (25.1) | 22.2 | 44.4 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 84 | 1 | 24 | 63 | 83 | 107 | 140 | 182 | 236 |
| margin % | 28.4 | 0.4 | 8.9 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 |
| less depreciation | (8) | (9) | (12) | (17) | (21) | (28) | (36) | (47) | (61) |
| EBIT | 76 | (8) | 12 | 47 | 61 | 80 | 104 | 135 | 175 |
| less tax on EBIT | (12) | (16) | (21) | (27) | (35) | (46) | |||
| NOPAT | 35 | 45 | 59 | 77 | 100 | 129 | |||
| add depreciation | 8 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 21 | 28 | 36 | 47 | 61 |
| less capex | (17) | (34) | (127) | (57) | (75) | (81) | (85) | (83) | (73) |
| less working-capital build | — | (27) | (35) | (45) | (58) | (76) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 52 | (48) | (118) | — | (35) | (29) | (17) | 5 | 41 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (33) | (25) | (13) | 3 | 26 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 162, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 47 | 61 | 80 | 104 | 135 | 175 |
| Interest at 7.8% on debt | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | |
| Profit before tax | 49 | 67 | 91 | 122 | 163 | |
| Profit after tax | 28 | 36 | 50 | 67 | 90 | 120 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 22 | (22) | (60) | (87) | (91) | (59) |
| Working capital | 89 | 115 | 150 | 195 | 253 | 329 |
| Net block and other assets | 368 | 421 | 475 | 523 | 560 | 572 |
| Debt | 162 | 162 | 162 | 162 | 162 | 162 |
| Equity | 243 | 278 | 328 | 395 | 485 | 605 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 31 | 43 | 58 | 79 | 105 | |
| Investing (capex) | (75) | (81) | (85) | (83) | (73) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (44) | (38) | (26) | (4) | 32 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (44) | (38) | (26) | (4) | 32 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 16.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹86 | (38.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.