Models
LUMAX AUTO TECH LTDLUMAXTECHAuto Components
₹1,359per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,359implied FY26 P/E 28.6× · EV/EBITDA 15.8×
Against CMP ₹1,991.10−31.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹995₹2,087
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,061₹2,149
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,774 |
| PV of terminal value | 8,409 |
| Enterprise value | 10,183 |
| less net debt | (919) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 9,264 |
| ÷ 6.82 crore shares | ₹1,359 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,411 | 1,534 | 1,681 | 1,862 | 2,087 |
| 10.50% | 1,283 | 1,385 | 1,506 | 1,650 | 1,827 |
| 11.00% | 1,173 | 1,259 | 1,359 | 1,478 | 1,620 |
| 11.50% | 1,078 | 1,151 | 1,236 | 1,334 | 1,451 |
| 12.00% | 995 | 1,058 | 1,130 | 1,213 | 1,310 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,991.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 920 · 1,323 · 1,865 |
| Draws below the CMP | 94% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.44 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,847 | 2,822 | 3,637 | 4,870 | 6,331 | 8,231 | 10,700 | 13,910 | 18,083 |
| growth % | 22.5 | 52.7 | 28.9 | 33.9 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 191 | 368 | 465 | 644 | 836 | 1,086 | 1,412 | 1,836 | 2,387 |
| margin % | 10.4 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 |
| less depreciation | (52) | (118) | (129) | (179) | (234) | (305) | (396) | (515) | (669) |
| EBIT | 139 | 250 | 336 | 465 | 601 | 782 | 1,017 | 1,321 | 1,718 |
| less tax on EBIT | (79) | (102) | (132) | (172) | (223) | (290) | |||
| NOPAT | 386 | 500 | 650 | 845 | 1,098 | 1,428 | |||
| add depreciation | 52 | 118 | 129 | 179 | 234 | 305 | 396 | 515 | 669 |
| less capex | (83) | (104) | (180) | (248) | (323) | (406) | (510) | (641) | (803) |
| less working-capital build | — | (169) | (220) | (286) | (372) | (484) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 54 | 162 | 110 | — | 242 | 328 | 444 | 600 | 810 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 229 | 280 | 342 | 416 | 506 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,001, dividends at 16.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 465 | 601 | 782 | 1,017 | 1,321 | 1,718 |
| Interest at 11.9% on debt | (119) | (119) | (119) | (119) | (119) | |
| Profit before tax | 482 | 663 | 897 | 1,202 | 1,599 | |
| Profit after tax | 279 | 401 | 551 | 746 | 999 | 1,329 |
| Dividends | (47) | (67) | (92) | (125) | (167) | (222) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 82 | 158 | 295 | 515 | 849 | 1,338 |
| Working capital | 567 | 737 | 957 | 1,243 | 1,616 | 2,100 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,298 | 3,387 | 3,488 | 3,603 | 3,729 | 3,863 |
| Debt | 1,001 | 1,001 | 1,001 | 1,001 | 1,001 | 1,001 |
| Equity | 1,476 | 1,810 | 2,269 | 2,890 | 3,722 | 4,829 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 466 | 635 | 855 | 1,141 | 1,514 | |
| Investing (capex) | (323) | (406) | (510) | (641) | (803) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (67) | (92) | (125) | (167) | (222) | |
| Net change in cash | 76 | 137 | 220 | 334 | 489 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 143 | 229 | 345 | 501 | 711 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 13.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,359 | (31.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.