Models
LUMAX INDUSTRIES LTDLUMAXINDAuto Components
₹2,415per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,415implied FY26 P/E 12.0× · EV/EBITDA 7.8×
Against CMP ₹5,879.50−58.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3189%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,561₹4,126
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹4,061₹6,935
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 322 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,717 |
| Enterprise value | 3,040 |
| less net debt | (782) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,258 |
| ÷ 0.93 crore shares | ₹2,415 |
89% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,533 | 2,823 | 3,170 | 3,595 | 4,126 |
| 10.50% | 2,233 | 2,473 | 2,758 | 3,099 | 3,516 |
| 11.00% | 1,976 | 2,179 | 2,415 | 2,694 | 3,030 |
| 11.50% | 1,754 | 1,927 | 2,126 | 2,358 | 2,632 |
| 12.00% | 1,561 | 1,709 | 1,879 | 2,074 | 2,302 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹5,879.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,236 · 2,353 · 3,682 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.34 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,320 | 2,637 | 3,400 | 4,184 | 5,147 | 6,330 | 7,786 | 9,577 | 11,780 |
| growth % | 32.4 | 13.7 | 29.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 |
| EBITDA | 202 | 230 | 279 | 387 | 479 | 589 | 724 | 891 | 1,096 |
| margin % | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| less depreciation | (80) | (93) | (113) | (152) | (185) | (228) | (280) | (345) | (424) |
| EBIT | 122 | 138 | 166 | 236 | 293 | 361 | 444 | 546 | 671 |
| less tax on EBIT | (70) | (87) | (107) | (132) | (162) | (199) | |||
| NOPAT | 166 | 206 | 254 | 312 | 384 | 472 | |||
| add depreciation | 80 | 93 | 113 | 152 | 185 | 228 | 280 | 345 | 424 |
| less capex | (91) | (260) | (324) | (289) | (355) | (396) | (437) | (475) | (509) |
| less working-capital build | — | (55) | (67) | (83) | (102) | (126) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 17 | (128) | (8) | — | (18) | 18 | 73 | 151 | 262 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (18) | 15 | 56 | 105 | 164 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 807, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 236 | 293 | 361 | 444 | 546 | 671 |
| Interest at 9.4% on debt | (76) | (76) | (76) | (76) | (76) | |
| Profit before tax | 218 | 285 | 368 | 470 | 596 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 153 | 200 | 259 | 330 | 419 |
| Dividends | (33) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 25 | (47) | (82) | (63) | 35 | 243 |
| Working capital | 238 | 293 | 361 | 444 | 546 | 671 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,172 | 3,342 | 3,510 | 3,666 | 3,797 | 3,882 |
| Debt | 807 | 807 | 807 | 807 | 807 | 807 |
| Equity | 918 | 1,070 | 1,271 | 1,529 | 1,860 | 2,279 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 283 | 361 | 456 | 573 | 717 | |
| Investing (capex) | (355) | (396) | (437) | (475) | (509) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (72) | (35) | 19 | 98 | 208 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (72) | (35) | 19 | 98 | 208 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 23% | 9.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,415 | (58.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.