Models
LUPIN LIMITEDLUPINPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹2,718per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,718implied FY26 P/E 22.5× · EV/EBITDA 15.3×
Against CMP ₹2,095.00+29.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies11.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹2,058₹4,035
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,900₹2,530
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 23,983 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,02,018 |
| Enterprise value | 1,26,000 |
| less net debt | (1,742) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,24,258 |
| ÷ 45.73 crore shares | ₹2,718 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,812 | 3,034 | 3,301 | 3,627 | 4,035 |
| 10.50% | 2,579 | 2,764 | 2,983 | 3,244 | 3,565 |
| 11.00% | 2,381 | 2,536 | 2,718 | 2,932 | 3,189 |
| 11.50% | 2,209 | 2,341 | 2,494 | 2,672 | 2,882 |
| 12.00% | 2,058 | 2,172 | 2,302 | 2,452 | 2,627 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,095.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 2,069 · 2,677 · 3,458 |
| Draws below the CMP | 11% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.44 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16,642 | 20,011 | 22,708 | 27,958 | 34,388 | 42,298 | 52,026 | 63,992 | 78,710 |
| growth % | 1.4 | 20.2 | 13.5 | 23.1 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,798 | 3,811 | 5,283 | 8,258 | 10,145 | 12,478 | 15,348 | 18,878 | 23,220 |
| margin % | 10.8 | 19.0 | 23.3 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 |
| less depreciation | (881) | (1,197) | (1,169) | (1,376) | (1,685) | (2,073) | (2,549) | (3,136) | (3,857) |
| EBIT | 917 | 2,614 | 4,114 | 6,883 | 8,460 | 10,405 | 12,798 | 15,742 | 19,363 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,521) | (1,870) | (2,300) | (2,828) | (3,479) | (4,279) | |||
| NOPAT | 5,362 | 6,590 | 8,106 | 9,970 | 12,263 | 15,084 | |||
| add depreciation | 881 | 1,197 | 1,169 | 1,376 | 1,685 | 2,073 | 2,549 | 3,136 | 3,857 |
| less capex | (1,500) | (929) | (1,682) | (2,055) | (2,510) | (2,938) | (3,429) | (3,990) | (4,628) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1,961) | (2,412) | (2,967) | (3,650) | (4,489) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 435 | 2,562 | (1,252) | — | 3,803 | 4,828 | 6,124 | 7,759 | 9,823 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 3,610 | 4,129 | 4,717 | 5,385 | 6,142 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 5,910, dividends at 10.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 6,883 | 8,460 | 10,405 | 12,798 | 15,742 | 19,363 |
| Interest at 7.9% on debt | (467) | (467) | (467) | (467) | (467) | |
| Profit before tax | 7,993 | 9,938 | 12,332 | 15,275 | 18,896 | |
| Profit after tax | 5,333 | 6,226 | 7,742 | 9,606 | 11,899 | 14,720 |
| Dividends | (548) | (641) | (797) | (989) | (1,226) | (1,516) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4,168 | 6,966 | 10,633 | 15,404 | 21,574 | 29,517 |
| Working capital | 8,518 | 10,479 | 12,891 | 15,858 | 19,508 | 23,997 |
| Net block and other assets | 25,679 | 26,505 | 27,370 | 28,249 | 29,103 | 29,875 |
| Debt | 5,910 | 5,910 | 5,910 | 5,910 | 5,910 | 5,910 |
| Equity | 22,513 | 28,098 | 35,043 | 43,660 | 54,333 | 67,537 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 5,950 | 7,402 | 9,188 | 11,385 | 14,088 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2,510) | (2,938) | (3,429) | (3,990) | (4,628) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (641) | (797) | (989) | (1,226) | (1,516) | |
| Net change in cash | 2,798 | 3,667 | 4,770 | 6,170 | 7,943 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 3,440 | 4,465 | 5,760 | 7,395 | 9,459 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 23% | 29.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,718 | 29.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.