Models
MADRAS FERTILISERS LTDMADRASFERTFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹28per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹28implied FY26 P/E 6.4× · EV/EBITDA 9.3×
Against CMP ₹61.72−54.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹16₹53
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹53₹93
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 281 |
| PV of terminal value | 666 |
| Enterprise value | 947 |
| less net debt | (492) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 455 |
| ÷ 16.11 crore shares | ₹28 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 30 | 34 | 39 | 45 | 53 |
| 10.50% | 26 | 29 | 33 | 38 | 44 |
| 11.00% | 22 | 25 | 28 | 32 | 37 |
| 11.50% | 19 | 21 | 24 | 27 | 31 |
| 12.00% | 16 | 18 | 20 | 23 | 26 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹61.72; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 20 · 28 · 38 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.77 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,447 | 2,228 | 2,542 | 2,300 | 2,185 | 2,076 | 1,972 | 1,874 | 1,780 |
| growth % | 673.1 | (35.4) | 14.1 | (9.5) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 322 | 50 | 122 | 101 | 96 | 91 | 87 | 82 | 78 |
| margin % | 9.3 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| less depreciation | (10) | (10) | (12) | (14) | (13) | (12) | (12) | (11) | (11) |
| EBIT | 313 | 40 | 111 | 88 | 83 | 79 | 75 | 71 | 68 |
| less tax on EBIT | (19) | (18) | (17) | (16) | (15) | (14) | |||
| NOPAT | 69 | 65 | 62 | 59 | 56 | 53 | |||
| add depreciation | 10 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| less capex | (1) | (32) | (10) | (17) | (15) | (15) | (14) | (13) | (13) |
| less working-capital build | — | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 687 | 138 | 106 | — | 79 | 75 | 71 | 68 | 64 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 75 | 64 | 55 | 47 | 40 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 634, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 88 | 83 | 79 | 75 | 71 | 68 |
| Interest at 5.3% on debt | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | |
| Profit before tax | 49 | 45 | 41 | 38 | 34 | |
| Profit after tax | 80 | 39 | 36 | 32 | 30 | 27 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 142 | 195 | 243 | 288 | 329 | 367 |
| Working capital | 323 | 307 | 291 | 277 | 263 | 250 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,868 | 1,870 | 1,872 | 1,874 | 1,877 | 1,879 |
| Debt | 634 | 634 | 634 | 634 | 634 | 634 |
| Equity | 92 | 131 | 166 | 199 | 228 | 255 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 68 | 63 | 59 | 55 | 51 | |
| Investing (capex) | (15) | (15) | (14) | (13) | (13) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 53 | 49 | 45 | 41 | 38 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 53 | 49 | 45 | 41 | 38 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 4.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹28 | (54.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.