Models
MAGADH SUGAR & ENERGY LTDMAGADSUGARAgricultural Food & other Products
₹370per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹370implied FY26 P/E 10.2× · EV/EBITDA 8.3×
Against CMP ₹546.00−32.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹176₹758
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹417₹635
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 291 |
| PV of terminal value | 922 |
| Enterprise value | 1,213 |
| less net debt | (691) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 522 |
| ÷ 1.41 crore shares | ₹370 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 399 | 464 | 542 | 638 | 758 |
| 10.50% | 330 | 385 | 449 | 525 | 619 |
| 11.00% | 272 | 317 | 370 | 433 | 509 |
| 11.50% | 221 | 260 | 304 | 357 | 418 |
| 12.00% | 176 | 210 | 248 | 292 | 343 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹546.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 245 · 371 · 524 |
| Draws below the CMP | 92% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.77 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 953 | 1,097 | 1,322 | 1,245 | 1,182 | 1,123 | 1,067 | 1,014 | 963 |
| growth % | (4.2) | 15.0 | 20.6 | (5.9) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 131 | 213 | 211 | 146 | 140 | 133 | 126 | 120 | 114 |
| margin % | 13.7 | 19.4 | 15.9 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 |
| less depreciation | (25) | (25) | (27) | (30) | (28) | (27) | (26) | (24) | (23) |
| EBIT | 106 | 188 | 183 | 117 | 111 | 106 | 100 | 95 | 91 |
| less tax on EBIT | (30) | (28) | (27) | (26) | (24) | (23) | |||
| NOPAT | 87 | 83 | 79 | 75 | 71 | 67 | |||
| add depreciation | 25 | 25 | 27 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 24 | 23 |
| less capex | (22) | (48) | (152) | (86) | (82) | (66) | (52) | (39) | (28) |
| less working-capital build | — | 32 | 30 | 29 | 27 | 26 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 93 | (17) | (13) | — | 62 | 70 | 77 | 83 | 89 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 58 | 60 | 59 | 58 | 56 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 691, dividends at 27.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 117 | 111 | 106 | 100 | 95 | 91 |
| Interest at 5.1% on debt | (35) | (35) | (35) | (35) | (35) | |
| Profit before tax | 76 | 70 | 65 | 60 | 55 | |
| Profit after tax | 64 | 57 | 52 | 48 | 45 | 41 |
| Dividends | (18) | (16) | (15) | (13) | (12) | (11) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 20 | 49 | 86 | 131 | 182 |
| Working capital | 639 | 607 | 577 | 548 | 521 | 495 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,041 | 1,094 | 1,133 | 1,160 | 1,175 | 1,179 |
| Debt | 691 | 691 | 691 | 691 | 691 | 691 |
| Equity | 880 | 921 | 959 | 994 | 1,026 | 1,056 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 117 | 110 | 103 | 96 | 90 | |
| Investing (capex) | (82) | (66) | (52) | (39) | (28) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (16) | (15) | (13) | (12) | (11) | |
| Net change in cash | 20 | 29 | 37 | 45 | 51 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 35 | 43 | 51 | 57 | 63 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 11.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹370 | (32.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.