Models
MAGNA ELECTRO CASTINGS LTD.BSE 517449Industrial Products
₹336per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹336implied FY26 P/E 9.1× · EV/EBITDA 4.7×
Against CMP ₹1,399.95−76.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31139%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹190₹631
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹706₹1,470
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (60) |
| PV of terminal value | 214 |
| Enterprise value | 154 |
| less net debt | (12) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 142 |
| ÷ 0.42 crore shares | ₹336 |
139% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 354 | 404 | 465 | 538 | 631 |
| 10.50% | 303 | 345 | 394 | 454 | 526 |
| 11.00% | 259 | 295 | 336 | 384 | 443 |
| 11.50% | 222 | 252 | 287 | 327 | 375 |
| 12.00% | 190 | 216 | 245 | 279 | 319 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,399.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 185 · 332 · 495 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 165 | 144 | 176 | 196 | 219 | 244 | 272 | 304 | 339 |
| growth % | 21.9 | (12.7) | 22.8 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 26 | 23 | 34 | 33 | 37 | 41 | 46 | 51 | 57 |
| margin % | 15.6 | 16.3 | 19.4 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (4) | (5) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (14) | (15) |
| EBIT | 20 | 19 | 30 | 24 | 27 | 30 | 34 | 38 | 42 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | |||
| NOPAT | 18 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 31 | |||
| add depreciation | 6 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 |
| less capex | (4) | (1) | (8) | (57) | (64) | (57) | (47) | (34) | (18) |
| less working-capital build | — | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (7) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 15 | 7 | 32 | — | (39) | (29) | (16) | 0 | 21 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (37) | (24) | (12) | 0 | 13 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 14, dividends at 13.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 24 | 27 | 30 | 34 | 38 | 42 |
| Interest at 7.8% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 26 | 29 | 33 | 37 | 41 | |
| Profit after tax | 18 | 19 | 21 | 24 | 27 | 30 |
| Dividends | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | (40) | (72) | (92) | (96) | (80) |
| Working capital | 40 | 45 | 50 | 56 | 62 | 69 |
| Net block and other assets | 152 | 205 | 251 | 286 | 307 | 310 |
| Debt | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Equity | 145 | 161 | 180 | 201 | 224 | 250 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 24 | 27 | 30 | 34 | 38 | |
| Investing (capex) | (64) | (57) | (47) | (34) | (18) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | (42) | (32) | (20) | (4) | 16 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (39) | (29) | (17) | (0) | 20 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 16.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹336 | (76.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.